Last updated 08/01/2025.


spring

The cumulative spring season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through June 15, 2025 is 146,061. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through June 15 is 99.7%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total spring (Mar 1–Jun 15) season dam count would be 146,501 (95% prediction interval = 146,501 – 146,501 and 50% prediction interval = 146,501 – 146,501) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the summer season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through June 15 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 146,501 146,501 146,501 146,501 146,501 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun 1,432 146,061 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 146,501 148,644 151,146 153,570 156,031 158,447 161,076 163,673 166,200 168,976 171,422
14-Jun 1,670 144,629 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 145,064 147,187 149,664 152,064 154,502 156,893 159,496 162,069 164,571 167,319 169,741 172,267
13-Jun 1,533 142,959 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 143,389 145,487 147,936 150,308 152,718 155,082 157,655 160,197 162,670 165,387 167,781 170,278 172,866
12-Jun 1,894 141,426 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 141,852 143,927 146,350 148,697 151,080 153,419 155,964 158,479 160,926 163,613 165,982 168,452 171,013 173,466
11-Jun 1,956 139,532 NA NA NA NA NA NA 139,952 142,000 144,390 146,705 149,057 151,364 153,875 156,357 158,771 161,422 163,759 166,196 168,722 171,143 173,603
10-Jun 2,290 137,576 NA NA NA NA NA 137,990 140,009 142,366 144,649 146,967 149,242 151,718 154,165 156,545 159,159 161,463 163,866 166,357 168,744 171,169 173,690
09-Jun 2,215 135,286 NA NA NA NA 135,693 137,678 139,996 142,241 144,521 146,758 149,193 151,599 153,940 156,510 158,776 161,139 163,588 165,935 168,320 170,799 173,075
08-Jun 1,838 133,071 NA NA NA 133,471 135,424 137,704 139,912 142,155 144,355 146,750 149,117 151,419 153,948 156,176 158,500 160,910 163,218 165,564 168,002 170,241 172,731
07-Jun 2,010 131,233 NA NA 131,628 133,554 135,802 137,980 140,191 142,361 144,723 147,057 149,328 151,821 154,019 156,311 158,687 160,964 163,277 165,682 167,889 170,345 172,993
06-Jun 2,054 129,223 NA 129,612 131,508 133,722 135,866 138,044 140,181 142,507 144,805 147,041 149,496 151,660 153,917 156,257 158,498 160,777 163,144 165,318 167,736 170,343 172,907
05-Jun 1,457 127,169 127,552 129,418 131,596 133,707 135,850 137,953 140,242 142,503 144,703 147,120 149,249 151,471 153,773 155,979 158,221 160,551 162,690 165,070 167,635 170,159 173,065
04-Jun 1,367 125,712 127,935 130,089 132,175 134,293 136,372 138,635 140,871 143,045 145,434 147,539 149,735 152,011 154,192 156,408 158,711 160,826 163,179 165,715 168,209 171,083 173,996
03-Jun 1,172 124,345 128,674 130,738 132,833 134,889 137,127 139,339 141,490 143,853 145,935 148,107 150,358 152,515 154,707 156,986 159,078 161,405 163,913 166,380 169,222 172,104 175,016
02-Jun 1,131 123,173 129,505 131,581 133,618 135,835 138,025 140,156 142,497 144,560 146,711 148,941 151,078 153,249 155,506 157,578 159,883 162,368 164,812 167,627 170,481 173,367 177,156
01-Jun 1,413 122,042 130,373 132,391 134,587 136,758 138,869 141,188 143,232 145,364 147,573 149,691 151,842 154,078 156,131 158,415 160,877 163,298 166,088 168,916 171,775 175,529 179,758
31-May 1,523 120,629 130,858 133,029 135,175 137,262 139,554 141,574 143,681 145,865 147,958 150,084 152,294 154,324 156,581 159,014 161,408 164,165 166,960 169,786 173,497 177,677 181,869
30-May 1,076 119,106 131,350 133,468 135,529 137,792 139,786 141,867 144,023 146,089 148,189 150,371 152,375 154,604 157,007 159,370 162,092 164,852 167,642 171,307 175,434 179,573 184,351
29-May 1,113 118,030 132,262 134,304 136,547 138,524 140,585 142,722 144,770 146,850 149,013 150,999 153,207 155,588 157,930 160,628 163,363 166,128 169,759 173,849 177,951 182,686 187,136
28-May 1,166 116,917 133,038 135,259 137,217 139,259 141,376 143,405 145,466 147,608 149,575 151,763 154,121 156,441 159,113 161,823 164,561 168,158 172,209 176,273 180,963 185,372 189,211
27-May 1,216 115,751 133,910 135,849 137,871 139,966 141,974 144,015 146,136 148,083 150,249 152,584 154,881 157,527 160,209 162,920 166,481 170,492 174,515 179,158 183,523 187,324 191,668
26-May 1,678 114,535 134,422 136,422 138,496 140,483 142,502 144,600 146,527 148,671 150,981 153,254 155,872 158,526 161,209 164,732 168,701 172,681 177,276 181,595 185,356 189,655 195,249
25-May 1,332 112,857 134,424 136,467 138,425 140,414 142,482 144,381 146,493 148,769 151,008 153,588 156,203 158,847 162,319 166,229 170,151 174,679 178,934 182,641 186,876 192,388 199,427
24-May 1,292 111,525 134,856 136,791 138,757 140,800 142,677 144,764 147,013 149,226 151,775 154,360 156,972 160,403 164,267 168,143 172,617 176,823 180,485 184,670 190,118 197,073 204,207
23-May 1,125 110,233 135,206 137,150 139,169 141,024 143,087 145,310 147,497 150,017 152,571 155,153 158,545 162,364 166,195 170,617 174,774 178,394 182,531 187,915 194,790 201,841 208,928
22-May 1,261 109,108 135,750 137,749 139,584 141,626 143,827 145,992 148,486 151,014 153,570 156,927 160,707 164,499 168,876 172,990 176,574 180,668 185,997 192,802 199,781 206,796 214,755
21-May 1,389 107,847 136,157 137,971 139,990 142,165 144,305 146,770 149,269 151,795 155,113 158,850 162,598 166,924 170,991 174,533 178,580 183,848 190,574 197,473 204,406 212,273 222,224
20-May 1,629 106,458 136,194 138,187 140,334 142,446 144,880 147,347 149,840 153,115 156,804 160,504 164,775 168,789 172,285 176,280 181,480 188,119 194,929 201,773 209,539 219,362 232,178
19-May 2,804 104,829 136,072 138,187 140,267 142,663 145,092 147,547 150,772 154,405 158,048 162,253 166,206 169,649 173,583 178,703 185,240 191,946 198,686 206,332 216,005 228,626 242,321
18-May 2,169 102,025 134,490 136,515 138,847 141,211 143,601 146,740 150,275 153,820 157,913 161,760 165,111 168,940 173,923 180,286 186,812 193,371 200,813 210,228 222,510 235,840 250,591
17-May 2,522 99,856 133,612 135,895 138,209 140,548 143,620 147,080 150,550 154,556 158,321 161,601 165,348 170,225 176,453 182,841 189,260 196,544 205,758 217,780 230,826 245,263 261,723
16-May 2,234 97,334 132,463 134,718 136,998 139,993 143,365 146,748 150,653 154,323 157,519 161,172 165,926 171,996 178,223 184,480 191,580 200,562 212,280 224,996 239,069 255,113 275,776
15-May 2,271 95,100 131,626 133,854 136,780 140,075 143,380 147,195 150,781 153,904 157,473 162,118 168,049 174,132 180,246 187,183 195,958 207,407 219,832 233,582 249,258 269,447 292,438
14-May 1,562 92,829 130,657 133,513 136,730 139,956 143,680 147,180 150,229 153,712 158,246 164,036 169,974 175,942 182,713 191,279 202,454 214,582 228,004 243,305 263,012 285,454 315,253
13-May 1,367 91,267 131,267 134,429 137,601 141,262 144,704 147,701 151,126 155,584 161,275 167,114 172,981 179,639 188,060 199,048 210,972 224,167 239,211 258,587 280,651 309,948 345,558
12-May 2,030 89,900 132,416 135,540 139,146 142,536 145,489 148,862 153,253 158,860 164,611 170,390 176,948 185,244 196,066 207,812 220,810 235,629 254,714 276,448 305,306 340,383 389,509
11-May 2,958 87,870 132,479 136,004 139,318 142,203 145,501 149,793 155,273 160,894 166,543 172,952 181,061 191,639 203,119 215,824 230,308 248,962 270,205 298,412 332,697 380,713 440,487
10-May 4,275 84,912 131,426 134,628 137,416 140,603 144,750 150,046 155,478 160,936 167,130 174,965 185,188 196,281 208,558 222,555 240,581 261,109 288,366 321,497 367,897 425,658 492,251
09-May 4,579 80,637 127,850 130,498 133,524 137,463 142,491 147,650 152,834 158,716 166,157 175,864 186,399 198,058 211,350 228,469 247,963 273,848 305,311 349,375 404,228 467,468 549,633
08-May 5,804 76,058 123,088 125,942 129,657 134,400 139,265 144,155 149,703 156,721 165,878 175,815 186,811 199,349 215,495 233,883 258,297 287,974 329,536 381,274 440,922 518,422 621,539
07-May 6,690 70,254 116,331 119,763 124,144 128,638 133,155 138,279 144,762 153,220 162,398 172,556 184,136 199,051 216,035 238,587 265,998 304,389 352,179 407,275 478,861 574,110 702,917
06-May 5,287 63,564 108,358 112,322 116,388 120,475 125,111 130,977 138,629 146,934 156,124 166,602 180,096 195,463 215,867 240,668 275,403 318,642 368,492 433,261 519,440 635,981 731,317
05-May 5,481 58,277 102,980 106,708 110,454 114,705 120,083 127,099 134,712 143,138 152,744 165,116 179,205 197,912 220,650 252,496 292,139 337,843 397,224 476,235 583,083 670,489 773,223
04-May 6,975 52,796 96,672 100,066 103,917 108,789 115,145 122,042 129,676 138,379 149,587 162,351 179,298 199,898 228,749 264,663 306,068 359,865 431,444 528,243 607,429 700,500 784,172
03-May 7,706 45,821 86,846 90,188 94,416 99,933 105,919 112,544 120,097 129,825 140,902 155,611 173,489 198,528 229,698 265,633 312,322 374,445 458,456 527,180 607,956 680,573 770,707
02-May 5,085 38,115 75,021 78,538 83,127 88,106 93,617 99,900 107,991 117,206 129,441 144,312 165,140 191,068 220,960 259,797 311,472 381,354 438,521 505,712 566,117 641,093 734,667
01-May 4,182 33,030 68,060 72,036 76,352 81,127 86,572 93,584 101,569 112,172 125,059 143,109 165,577 191,481 225,137 269,918 330,477 380,017 438,244 490,590 555,563 636,654 767,755
30-Apr 4,689 28,848 62,916 66,685 70,856 75,611 81,735 88,709 97,969 109,225 124,989 144,613 167,237 196,632 235,743 288,635 331,902 382,757 428,475 485,222 556,046 670,548 792,990
29-Apr 2,635 24,159 55,846 59,339 63,321 68,450 74,290 82,045 91,472 104,673 121,108 140,054 164,671 197,425 241,720 277,954 320,543 358,830 406,353 465,665 561,556 664,096 833,546
28-Apr 2,927 21,524 52,867 56,415 60,984 66,188 73,097 81,495 93,257 107,898 124,779 146,711 175,892 215,355 247,638 285,582 319,693 362,033 414,876 500,308 591,664 742,632 945,610
27-Apr 3,737 18,597 48,743 52,691 57,187 63,156 70,413 80,575 93,226 107,810 126,760 151,973 186,070 213,962 246,746 276,219 312,801 358,458 432,272 511,205 641,643 817,018 1,020,331
26-Apr 3,165 14,860 42,103 45,695 50,465 56,263 64,384 74,492 86,146 101,288 121,435 148,680 170,967 197,163 220,714 249,945 286,427 345,409 408,480 512,707 652,842 815,299 994,247
25-Apr 2,106 11,695 35,963 39,717 44,280 50,671 58,626 67,798 79,715 95,571 117,013 134,553 155,170 173,704 196,709 225,421 271,841 321,479 403,507 513,794 641,650 782,484 923,475
24-Apr 1,906 9,589 32,565 36,306 41,546 48,069 55,589 65,360 78,360 95,941 110,323 127,227 142,424 161,287 184,828 222,888 263,588 330,845 421,272 526,104 641,577 757,178 899,532
23-Apr 1,826 7,683 29,090 33,288 38,514 44,540 52,368 62,785 76,871 88,394 101,938 114,115 129,228 148,090 178,585 211,195 265,083 337,536 421,531 514,051 606,674 720,733 785,679
22-Apr 1,088 5,857 25,377 29,361 33,954 39,922 47,863 58,601 67,386 77,711 86,993 98,515 112,894 136,141 161,001 202,081 257,314 321,346 391,878 462,487 549,438 598,949 662,104
21-Apr 677 4,769 23,907 27,647 32,506 38,972 47,716 54,868 63,275 70,833 80,214 91,923 110,852 131,093 164,543 209,516 261,653 319,082 376,576 447,374 487,688 539,111 627,658
20-Apr 858 4,092 23,722 27,892 33,439 40,942 47,079 54,293 60,778 68,827 78,873 95,115 112,483 141,184 179,773 224,509 273,786 323,117 383,865 418,456 462,580 538,557 607,062
19-Apr 536 3,234 22,043 26,428 32,357 37,208 42,909 48,034 54,396 62,335 75,172 88,898 111,581 142,079 177,435 216,379 255,367 303,378 330,715 365,587 425,634 479,774 533,156
18-Apr 431 2,698 22,048 26,994 31,041 35,797 40,073 45,380 52,004 62,713 74,164 93,088 118,531 148,027 180,517 213,043 253,096 275,903 304,995 355,089 400,257 444,791 486,669
17-Apr 431 2,267 22,682 26,082 30,079 33,671 38,131 43,696 52,695 62,317 78,217 99,596 124,380 151,680 179,010 212,664 231,828 256,273 298,365 336,317 373,737 408,925 438,510
16-Apr 219 1,836 21,124 24,360 27,270 30,881 35,389 42,676 50,469 63,347 80,661 100,733 122,842 144,976 172,233 187,753 207,550 241,640 272,377 302,682 331,180 355,141 371,731
15-Apr 164 1,617 21,454 24,017 27,198 31,168 37,586 44,449 55,791 71,039 88,717 108,190 127,684 151,689 165,358 182,794 212,817 239,887 266,578 291,677 312,780 327,391 336,450
14-Apr 117 1,453 21,581 24,439 28,007 33,774 39,941 50,132 63,834 79,719 97,217 114,734 136,304 148,587 164,254 191,232 215,557 239,541 262,094 281,057 294,186 302,327 307,878
13-Apr 130 1,336 22,471 25,751 31,054 36,725 46,095 58,694 73,300 89,389 105,495 125,328 136,622 151,028 175,834 198,200 220,252 240,989 258,425 270,497 277,982 283,087 289,097
12-Apr 208 1,206 23,246 28,032 33,151 41,610 52,983 66,168 80,691 95,230 113,133 123,328 136,332 158,724 178,914 198,821 217,540 233,279 244,176 250,933 255,541 260,967 267,851
11-Apr 191 998 23,198 27,434 34,434 43,845 54,756 66,774 78,805 93,621 102,057 112,819 131,349 148,057 164,530 180,021 193,045 202,063 207,654 211,468 215,957 221,655 228,411
10-Apr 96 807 22,183 27,844 35,454 44,276 53,994 63,723 75,704 82,525 91,227 106,211 119,721 133,042 145,568 156,100 163,392 167,913 170,996 174,627 179,234 184,697 190,563
09-Apr 128 711 24,531 31,236 39,009 47,571 56,143 66,698 72,708 80,375 93,576 105,479 117,215 128,251 137,530 143,955 147,938 150,655 153,853 157,912 162,726 167,893 172,193
08-Apr 62 583 25,613 31,987 39,007 46,036 54,691 59,619 65,905 76,730 86,490 96,113 105,162 112,771 118,039 121,305 123,533 126,155 129,484 133,431 137,668 141,193 143,218
07-Apr 41 521 28,585 34,859 41,140 48,874 53,279 58,896 68,570 77,292 85,892 93,979 100,778 105,486 108,405 110,396 112,739 115,714 119,241 123,027 126,178 127,987 130,250
06-Apr 35 480 32,116 37,902 45,028 49,086 54,262 63,174 71,210 79,133 86,583 92,847 97,185 99,874 101,708 103,867 106,608 109,857 113,346 116,248 117,915 120,000 120,000
05-Apr 53 445 35,139 41,745 45,507 50,305 58,567 66,017 73,363 80,270 86,077 90,098 92,591 94,292 96,294 98,834 101,847 105,081 107,772 109,317 111,250 111,250 111,250
04-Apr 52 392 36,773 40,087 44,314 51,592 58,154 64,625 70,709 75,825 79,367 81,564 83,061 84,825 87,063 89,717 92,566 94,936 96,297 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000
03-Apr 52 340 34,769 38,435 44,748 50,440 56,052 61,330 65,767 68,839 70,744 72,043 73,573 75,514 77,815 80,287 82,343 83,523 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000
02-Apr 49 288 32,557 37,904 42,726 47,480 51,950 55,708 58,311 59,924 61,025 62,320 63,965 65,914 68,007 69,749 70,749 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000
01-Apr 69 239 31,455 35,456 39,401 43,111 46,230 48,390 49,729 50,642 51,717 53,082 54,700 56,437 57,882 58,712 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750
31-Mar 29 170 25,220 28,026 30,665 32,883 34,420 35,372 36,022 36,786 37,757 38,908 40,143 41,171 41,762 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500
30-Mar 31 141 23,245 25,434 27,274 28,548 29,338 29,877 30,511 31,316 32,271 33,295 34,148 34,638 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250
29-Mar 25 110 19,842 21,278 22,271 22,888 23,308 23,803 24,431 25,176 25,975 26,640 27,022 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500
28-Mar 29 85 16,442 17,210 17,686 18,011 18,393 18,878 19,454 20,072 20,586 20,881 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250
27-Mar 6 56 11,338 11,652 11,866 12,118 12,438 12,817 13,224 13,562 13,757 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000
26-Mar 18 50 10,404 10,595 10,820 11,105 11,443 11,807 12,109 12,283 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500
25-Mar 21 32 6,781 6,924 7,107 7,324 7,556 7,750 7,861 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
24-Mar 2 11 2,380 2,443 2,518 2,598 2,664 2,702 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750
23-Mar 1 9 1,999 2,060 2,125 2,180 2,211 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250
22-Mar 4 8 1,831 1,889 1,937 1,965 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
21-Mar 0 4 945 969 983 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
20-Mar 0 4 969 983 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
19-Mar 2 4 983 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
18-Mar 0 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
17-Mar 0 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
16-Mar 1 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
15-Mar 1 1 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
14-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA
09-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
08-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85
14-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84
13-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83
12-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82
11-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80
10-Jun NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79
09-Jun NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78
08-Jun NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77
07-Jun NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76
06-Jun NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75
05-Jun 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73
04-Jun 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72
03-Jun 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71
02-Jun 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70
01-Jun 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68
31-May 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66
30-May 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65
29-May 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63
28-May 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62
27-May 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60
26-May 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59
25-May 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57
24-May 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55
23-May 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53
22-May 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51
21-May 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49
20-May 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46
19-May 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43
18-May 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41
17-May 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38
16-May 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35
15-May 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33
14-May 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29
13-May 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26
12-May 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23
11-May 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20
10-May 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17
09-May 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15
08-May 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12
07-May 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10
06-May 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09
05-May 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
04-May 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07
03-May 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
02-May 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
01-May 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
30-Apr 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
29-Apr 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
28-Apr 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02
27-Apr 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
26-Apr 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01
25-Apr 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Apr 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Apr 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Apr 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Apr 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Apr 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
19-Apr 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
18-Apr 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
17-Apr 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
16-Apr 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
15-Apr 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
14-Apr 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Apr 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Apr 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Apr 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Apr 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
09-Apr 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
08-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-Apr 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
06-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
05-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
04-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
03-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
02-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
01-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
31-Mar 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
30-Mar 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
29-Mar 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
28-Mar 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
27-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
26-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
25-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
23-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
22-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun 1,432 146,061 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 146,501 148,667 151,280 153,893 156,481 158,734 161,387 164,048 166,630 169,634 172,242
14-Jun 1,670 144,629 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 145,064 147,209 149,797 152,385 154,947 157,178 159,805 162,440 164,996 167,971 170,554 173,438
13-Jun 1,533 142,959 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 143,389 145,509 148,068 150,625 153,158 155,363 157,959 160,564 163,091 166,032 168,584 171,436 174,117
12-Jun 1,894 141,426 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 141,852 143,949 146,480 149,010 151,516 153,697 156,266 158,842 161,342 164,251 166,776 169,597 172,250 174,647
11-Jun 1,956 139,532 NA NA NA NA NA NA 139,952 142,021 144,518 147,014 149,486 151,638 154,173 156,715 159,181 162,052 164,543 167,326 169,943 172,308 174,766
10-Jun 2,290 137,576 NA NA NA NA NA 137,990 140,030 142,492 144,953 147,391 149,513 152,012 154,518 156,950 159,780 162,236 164,980 167,560 169,892 172,316 174,715
09-Jun 2,215 135,286 NA NA NA NA 135,693 137,699 140,120 142,541 144,938 147,024 149,481 151,946 154,338 157,120 159,536 162,234 164,771 167,064 169,448 171,807 174,061
08-Jun 1,838 133,071 NA NA NA 133,471 135,445 137,826 140,207 142,565 144,617 147,034 149,458 151,811 154,548 156,924 159,578 162,074 164,329 166,674 168,994 171,211 173,668
07-Jun 2,010 131,233 NA NA 131,628 133,574 135,923 138,270 140,595 142,619 145,003 147,394 149,714 152,413 154,756 157,374 159,835 162,059 164,371 166,660 168,847 171,270 173,693
06-Jun 2,054 129,223 NA 129,612 131,528 133,841 136,152 138,442 140,435 142,782 145,136 147,421 150,079 152,386 154,963 157,387 159,577 161,854 164,108 166,260 168,647 171,033 173,239
05-Jun 1,457 127,169 127,552 129,438 131,713 133,988 136,241 138,203 140,513 142,829 145,077 147,693 149,964 152,500 154,885 157,041 159,281 161,499 163,618 165,966 168,314 170,486 173,065
04-Jun 1,367 125,712 127,955 130,204 132,453 134,681 136,619 138,903 141,193 143,415 146,001 148,246 150,753 153,111 155,241 157,456 159,649 161,743 164,064 166,386 168,532 171,082 173,586
03-Jun 1,172 124,345 128,788 131,013 133,216 135,134 137,392 139,658 141,856 144,414 146,634 149,114 151,446 153,553 155,744 157,913 159,984 162,280 164,577 166,700 169,222 171,698 174,043
02-Jun 1,131 123,173 129,778 131,960 133,860 136,097 138,341 140,519 143,052 145,252 147,708 150,018 152,106 154,276 156,424 158,476 160,751 163,025 165,129 167,627 170,080 172,402 175,664
01-Jun 1,413 122,042 130,749 132,631 134,848 137,071 139,228 141,739 143,918 146,352 148,641 150,709 152,860 154,988 157,021 159,275 161,528 163,612 166,088 168,518 170,819 174,051 176,677
31-May 1,523 120,629 131,095 133,286 135,484 137,616 140,098 142,252 144,658 146,920 148,964 151,090 153,194 155,203 157,431 159,658 161,718 164,165 166,567 168,842 172,036 174,632 177,038
30-May 1,076 119,106 131,604 133,774 135,879 138,329 140,456 142,831 145,065 147,084 149,182 151,259 153,244 155,443 157,643 159,676 162,092 164,464 166,710 169,864 172,427 174,803 177,591
29-May 1,113 118,030 132,565 134,651 137,079 139,187 141,541 143,754 145,755 147,834 149,893 151,859 154,039 156,218 158,234 160,628 162,978 165,204 168,330 170,869 173,224 175,987 178,789
28-May 1,166 116,917 133,382 135,787 137,874 140,206 142,399 144,381 146,440 148,479 150,427 152,586 154,745 156,742 159,113 161,442 163,646 166,742 169,258 171,590 174,328 177,103 180,288
27-May 1,216 115,751 134,433 136,499 138,808 140,979 142,941 144,980 146,999 148,927 151,064 153,202 155,178 157,526 159,832 162,014 165,079 167,570 169,879 172,589 175,337 178,490 182,444
26-May 1,678 114,535 135,065 137,350 139,498 141,439 143,457 145,454 147,363 149,477 151,593 153,548 155,871 158,152 160,312 163,345 165,810 168,094 170,776 173,495 176,615 180,527 185,647
25-May 1,332 112,857 135,337 137,454 139,367 141,355 143,323 145,204 147,288 149,372 151,299 153,588 155,835 157,963 160,952 163,380 165,632 168,274 170,953 174,027 177,882 182,927 189,909
24-May 1,292 111,525 135,832 137,722 139,687 141,632 143,490 145,549 147,609 149,513 151,775 153,996 156,099 159,053 161,452 163,677 166,288 168,935 171,973 175,783 180,768 187,668 195,193
23-May 1,125 110,233 136,126 138,069 139,991 141,828 143,863 145,899 147,781 150,017 152,212 154,291 157,210 159,582 161,781 164,361 166,978 169,981 173,747 178,674 185,494 192,931 201,115
22-May 1,261 109,108 136,659 138,562 140,380 142,395 144,410 146,273 148,486 150,659 152,716 155,605 157,953 160,130 162,684 165,274 168,246 171,973 176,850 183,601 190,962 199,063 208,881
21-May 1,389 107,847 136,961 138,758 140,749 142,741 144,582 146,770 148,917 150,951 153,807 156,128 158,279 160,804 163,364 166,302 169,986 174,806 181,479 188,755 196,762 206,467 219,184
20-May 1,629 106,458 136,971 138,936 140,902 142,720 144,879 147,000 149,007 151,826 154,117 156,240 158,733 161,260 164,160 167,796 172,555 179,141 186,324 194,228 203,808 216,361 233,672
19-May 2,804 104,829 136,810 138,746 140,536 142,662 144,750 146,727 149,503 151,758 153,850 156,304 158,792 161,648 165,229 169,915 176,400 183,473 191,256 200,689 213,050 230,096 249,325
18-May 2,169 102,025 135,035 136,777 138,846 140,878 142,802 145,504 147,699 149,734 152,123 154,545 157,324 160,809 165,370 171,682 178,566 186,140 195,321 207,351 223,941 242,656 263,215
17-May 2,522 99,856 133,869 135,895 137,883 139,766 142,411 144,559 146,551 148,889 151,259 153,980 157,391 161,854 168,032 174,770 182,183 191,169 202,943 219,180 237,497 257,619 274,443
16-May 2,234 97,334 132,462 134,401 136,236 138,814 140,908 142,850 145,129 147,439 150,091 153,415 157,766 163,788 170,355 177,581 186,340 197,817 213,645 231,499 251,113 267,511 281,650
15-May 2,271 95,100 131,316 133,109 135,628 137,674 139,571 141,798 144,055 146,646 149,894 154,145 160,029 166,445 173,506 182,063 193,277 208,741 226,186 245,349 261,371 275,185 296,115
14-May 1,562 92,829 129,931 132,389 134,386 136,238 138,411 140,615 143,144 146,315 150,464 156,207 162,471 169,362 177,716 188,662 203,756 220,784 239,490 255,130 268,614 289,044 317,166
13-May 1,367 91,267 130,161 132,125 133,946 136,082 138,249 140,735 143,853 147,932 153,579 159,737 166,512 174,725 185,487 200,328 217,069 235,460 250,837 264,094 284,180 311,829 346,645
12-May 2,030 89,900 130,146 131,940 134,044 136,178 138,627 141,698 145,716 151,278 157,344 164,018 172,108 182,709 197,327 213,818 231,934 247,080 260,139 279,924 307,158 341,453 399,456
11-May 2,958 87,870 128,960 131,017 133,103 135,497 138,499 142,426 147,863 153,791 160,315 168,222 178,583 192,872 208,990 226,696 241,501 254,264 273,603 300,223 333,743 390,436 444,368
10-May 4,275 84,912 126,607 128,622 130,936 133,836 137,632 142,885 148,614 154,918 162,559 172,571 186,379 201,955 219,065 233,371 245,705 264,393 290,116 322,508 377,292 429,409 501,875
09-May 4,579 80,637 122,147 124,344 127,098 130,702 135,691 141,132 147,119 154,375 163,883 176,995 191,787 208,036 221,622 233,335 251,081 275,510 306,271 358,297 407,790 476,607 567,543
08-May 5,804 76,058 117,283 119,881 123,280 127,986 133,118 138,764 145,609 154,577 166,945 180,896 196,223 209,037 220,085 236,824 259,865 288,879 337,951 384,633 449,543 535,315 658,256
07-May 6,690 70,254 110,733 113,873 118,219 122,960 128,175 134,497 142,781 154,205 167,092 181,249 193,085 203,290 218,752 240,035 266,835 312,162 355,282 415,238 494,465 608,025 768,517
06-May 5,287 63,564 103,029 106,962 111,251 115,970 121,690 129,185 139,521 151,181 163,989 174,698 183,932 197,921 217,177 241,425 282,436 321,450 375,697 447,379 550,125 695,334 828,129
05-May 5,481 58,277 98,065 101,997 106,324 111,568 118,440 127,916 138,606 150,349 160,168 168,633 181,459 199,113 221,344 258,944 294,713 344,448 410,168 504,368 637,499 759,248 969,463
04-May 6,975 52,796 92,404 96,324 101,075 107,300 115,885 125,570 136,209 145,104 152,773 164,392 180,386 200,527 234,590 266,995 312,052 371,592 456,932 577,542 687,840 878,284 1,050,852
03-May 7,706 45,821 83,598 87,722 93,125 100,575 108,981 118,214 125,934 132,590 142,674 156,555 174,035 203,598 231,722 270,826 322,500 396,565 501,241 596,968 762,252 912,022 1,136,888
02-May 5,085 38,115 72,969 77,463 83,661 90,653 98,333 104,755 110,291 118,680 130,226 144,766 169,358 192,751 225,280 268,263 329,872 416,944 496,572 634,059 758,641 945,690 1,211,029
01-May 4,182 33,030 67,129 72,500 78,559 85,214 90,779 95,577 102,846 112,853 125,453 146,763 167,036 195,225 232,473 285,863 361,319 430,324 549,468 657,429 819,524 1,049,463 1,341,907
30-Apr 4,689 28,848 63,320 68,612 74,425 79,285 83,476 89,825 98,564 109,569 128,181 145,887 170,507 203,039 249,670 315,572 375,839 479,899 574,191 715,762 916,588 1,172,005 1,442,102
29-Apr 2,635 24,159 57,460 62,328 66,398 69,908 75,224 82,543 91,759 107,346 122,175 142,792 170,037 209,088 264,278 314,750 401,895 480,861 599,421 767,605 981,506 1,207,700 1,445,334
28-Apr 2,927 21,524 55,530 59,156 62,283 67,020 73,540 81,751 95,638 108,849 127,218 151,491 186,283 235,454 280,420 358,061 428,414 534,043 683,883 874,454 1,075,977 1,287,692 1,550,786
27-Apr 3,737 18,597 51,112 53,813 57,906 63,540 70,634 82,633 94,047 109,918 130,890 160,951 203,435 242,287 309,369 370,155 461,420 590,883 755,539 929,658 1,112,582 1,339,898 1,570,125
26-Apr 3,165 14,860 43,000 46,270 50,772 56,440 66,028 75,149 87,830 104,588 128,608 162,555 193,600 247,202 295,774 368,699 472,147 603,716 742,846 889,013 1,070,650 1,254,614 1,496,047
25-Apr 2,106 11,695 36,415 39,958 44,419 51,965 59,143 69,124 82,312 101,216 127,933 152,366 194,551 232,777 290,171 371,586 475,132 584,629 699,664 842,615 987,396 1,177,407 1,433,788
24-Apr 1,906 9,589 32,762 36,420 42,607 48,493 56,676 67,490 82,990 104,895 124,928 159,517 190,860 237,917 304,672 389,571 479,351 573,670 690,879 809,589 965,383 1,175,596 1,384,000
23-Apr 1,826 7,683 29,181 34,138 38,854 45,411 54,075 66,494 84,045 100,096 127,810 152,923 190,627 244,112 312,137 384,071 459,642 553,554 648,667 773,495 941,924 1,108,903 1,254,130
22-Apr 1,088 5,857 26,025 29,619 34,618 41,223 50,690 64,070 76,307 97,434 116,578 145,321 186,095 237,952 292,789 350,400 421,992 494,500 589,660 718,059 845,353 956,064 1,077,898
21-Apr 677 4,769 24,117 28,187 33,565 41,274 52,169 62,132 79,334 94,922 118,326 151,526 193,750 238,401 285,310 343,602 402,642 480,124 584,672 688,319 778,465 877,667 983,083
20-Apr 858 4,092 24,186 28,801 35,415 44,763 53,312 68,072 81,447 101,529 130,015 166,245 204,558 244,808 294,825 345,483 411,967 501,673 590,607 667,955 753,075 843,526 882,766
19-Apr 536 3,234 22,762 27,989 35,377 42,133 53,799 64,370 80,240 102,754 131,387 161,667 193,477 233,007 273,043 325,587 396,483 466,770 527,900 595,172 666,658 697,670 717,252
18-Apr 431 2,698 23,350 29,514 35,150 44,882 53,701 66,941 85,724 109,611 134,872 161,410 194,389 227,789 271,624 330,771 389,408 440,407 496,529 556,167 582,039 598,375 609,740
17-Apr 431 2,267 24,799 29,535 37,713 45,122 56,248 72,029 92,101 113,327 135,625 163,335 191,400 228,233 277,931 327,201 370,052 417,209 467,320 489,060 502,786 512,335 519,498
16-Apr 219 1,836 23,920 30,543 36,544 45,554 58,335 74,591 91,781 109,840 132,282 155,011 184,841 225,091 264,994 299,698 337,890 378,474 396,080 407,197 414,930 420,732 426,013
15-Apr 164 1,617 26,899 32,185 40,120 51,377 65,694 80,833 96,738 116,503 136,522 162,793 198,242 233,385 263,950 297,586 333,329 348,835 358,626 365,437 370,546 375,198 379,148
14-Apr 117 1,453 28,921 36,051 46,166 59,031 72,635 86,927 104,687 122,675 146,282 178,135 209,714 237,180 267,404 299,522 313,455 322,253 328,373 332,965 337,145 340,694 344,224
13-Apr 130 1,336 33,148 42,449 54,278 66,786 79,927 96,258 112,797 134,503 163,791 192,828 218,081 245,872 275,404 288,215 296,305 301,932 306,153 309,997 313,260 316,506 321,237
12-Apr 208 1,206 38,318 48,996 60,288 72,150 86,891 101,821 121,415 147,854 174,064 196,861 221,947 248,605 260,170 267,472 272,552 276,363 279,832 282,778 285,709 289,979 292,652
11-Apr 191 998 40,546 49,890 59,706 71,905 84,260 100,475 122,353 144,043 162,908 183,668 205,728 215,298 221,341 225,545 228,698 231,569 234,007 236,432 239,966 242,178 244,984
10-Apr 96 807 40,342 48,279 58,144 68,134 81,246 98,937 116,476 131,730 148,517 166,355 174,094 178,980 182,379 184,929 187,251 189,222 191,183 194,041 195,829 198,098 201,341
09-Apr 128 711 42,536 51,227 60,029 71,581 87,167 102,620 116,060 130,849 146,566 153,384 157,689 160,684 162,930 164,976 166,712 168,440 170,958 172,534 174,533 177,390 177,750
08-Apr 62 583 42,005 49,222 58,694 71,475 84,146 95,166 107,293 120,180 125,770 129,301 131,756 133,598 135,276 136,700 138,116 140,181 141,473 143,112 145,455 145,750 145,750
07-Apr 41 521 43,987 52,452 63,874 75,197 85,045 95,883 107,399 112,395 115,550 117,744 119,391 120,889 122,162 123,428 125,273 126,428 127,892 129,986 130,250 130,250 130,250
06-Apr 35 480 48,325 58,847 69,279 78,353 88,337 98,947 103,550 106,457 108,479 109,995 111,376 112,549 113,715 115,415 116,478 117,828 119,757 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000
05-Apr 53 445 54,556 64,228 72,639 81,896 91,732 96,000 98,694 100,569 101,975 103,255 104,342 105,423 106,999 107,985 109,236 111,025 111,250 111,250 111,250 111,250 111,250
04-Apr 52 392 56,578 63,988 72,142 80,807 84,566 86,940 88,591 89,829 90,957 91,915 92,867 94,255 95,124 96,226 97,802 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000
03-Apr 52 340 55,500 62,572 70,088 73,348 75,407 76,839 77,913 78,891 79,722 80,548 81,752 82,506 83,462 84,828 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000
02-Apr 49 288 53,002 59,368 62,130 63,874 65,087 65,997 66,826 67,529 68,229 69,249 69,887 70,697 71,854 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000
01-Apr 69 239 49,268 51,559 53,007 54,013 54,768 55,456 56,040 56,621 57,467 57,997 58,669 59,629 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750 59,750
31-Mar 29 170 36,674 37,703 38,419 38,957 39,446 39,861 40,274 40,876 41,253 41,731 42,414 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500 42,500
30-Mar 31 141 31,272 31,866 32,311 32,717 33,061 33,404 33,903 34,216 34,612 35,179 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250 35,250
29-Mar 25 110 24,860 25,207 25,524 25,792 26,060 26,449 26,693 27,002 27,444 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500
28-Mar 29 85 19,478 19,723 19,930 20,137 20,438 20,626 20,865 21,207 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250
27-Mar 6 56 12,994 13,131 13,267 13,465 13,589 13,747 13,972 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000
26-Mar 18 50 11,724 11,845 12,022 12,133 12,274 12,475 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500
25-Mar 21 32 7,581 7,694 7,765 7,855 7,984 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
24-Mar 2 11 2,645 2,669 2,700 2,744 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750
23-Mar 1 9 2,184 2,209 2,245 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250
22-Mar 4 8 1,964 1,996 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
21-Mar 0 4 998 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
20-Mar 0 4 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
19-Mar 2 4 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
18-Mar 0 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
17-Mar 0 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
16-Mar 1 2 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
15-Mar 1 1 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
14-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA
09-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
08-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85
14-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83
13-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82
12-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81
11-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80
10-Jun NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79
09-Jun NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78
08-Jun NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77
07-Jun NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76
06-Jun NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75
05-Jun 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73
04-Jun 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72
03-Jun 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71
02-Jun 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70
01-Jun 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69
31-May 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68
30-May 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67
29-May 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66
28-May 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65
27-May 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63
26-May 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62
25-May 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59
24-May 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57
23-May 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55
22-May 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52
21-May 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49
20-May 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46
19-May 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42
18-May 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39
17-May 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36
16-May 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35
15-May 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32
14-May 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29
13-May 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26
12-May 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23
11-May 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20
10-May 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17
09-May 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14
08-May 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12
07-May 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09
06-May 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08
05-May 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06
04-May 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05
03-May 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04
02-May 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
01-May 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02
30-Apr 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
29-Apr 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
28-Apr 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
27-Apr 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
26-Apr 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
25-Apr 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
24-Apr 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Apr 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Apr 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Apr 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
20-Apr 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
19-Apr 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Apr 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Apr 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Apr 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Apr 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Apr 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Apr 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Apr 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
09-Apr 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
08-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
06-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
05-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
04-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
03-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
02-Apr 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
01-Apr 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
31-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
30-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
29-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
28-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
27-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
26-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
25-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
23-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
22-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

summer

The cumulative summer season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through July 31, 2025 is 43,013. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through July 31 is 99.7%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total summer (Jun 16–Jul 31) season dam count would be 43,142 (95% prediction interval = 43,142 – 43,142 and 50% prediction interval = 43,142 – 43,142) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the summer season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through July 31 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 43,142 43,142 43,142 43,142 43,142 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul 505 43,013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 43,142 43,356 43,732 44,137 44,543 44,917 45,334 45,745 46,180 46,628 47,144
30-Jul 618 42,508 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,636 42,847 43,219 43,618 44,020 44,390 44,802 45,208 45,637 46,081 46,590 47,118
29-Jul 493 41,890 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,016 42,224 42,590 42,984 43,380 43,745 44,150 44,551 44,974 45,411 45,913 46,433 46,992
28-Jul 367 41,397 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,522 41,727 42,089 42,478 42,869 43,230 43,631 44,027 44,445 44,876 45,373 45,887 46,439 46,979
27-Jul 424 41,030 NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,153 41,357 41,716 42,102 42,489 42,846 43,244 43,636 44,051 44,479 44,970 45,480 46,027 46,563 47,139
26-Jul 435 40,606 NA NA NA NA NA 40,728 40,930 41,285 41,667 42,050 42,404 42,797 43,185 43,595 44,019 44,506 45,010 45,552 46,082 46,652 47,319
25-Jul 536 40,171 NA NA NA NA 40,292 40,491 40,842 41,220 41,599 41,949 42,338 42,723 43,128 43,547 44,029 44,528 45,064 45,588 46,152 46,812 47,560
24-Jul 478 39,635 NA NA NA 39,754 39,951 40,297 40,670 41,044 41,390 41,774 42,153 42,553 42,966 43,441 43,934 44,462 44,980 45,536 46,188 46,926 47,809
23-Jul 354 39,157 NA NA 39,275 39,469 39,811 40,180 40,549 40,891 41,270 41,644 42,040 42,448 42,918 43,404 43,926 44,437 44,987 45,631 46,360 47,233 48,101
22-Jul 309 38,803 NA 38,920 39,113 39,452 39,817 40,183 40,521 40,897 41,268 41,660 42,064 42,530 43,011 43,529 44,036 44,581 45,218 45,941 46,806 47,666 48,564
21-Jul 269 38,494 38,610 38,801 39,137 39,500 39,863 40,198 40,571 40,939 41,328 41,729 42,191 42,669 43,182 43,685 44,226 44,858 45,575 46,433 47,286 48,178 49,060
20-Jul 236 38,225 38,530 38,864 39,224 39,584 39,917 40,287 40,653 41,039 41,438 41,896 42,371 42,881 43,380 43,917 44,545 45,256 46,108 46,956 47,841 48,718 49,672
19-Jul 326 37,989 38,624 38,981 39,340 39,671 40,039 40,402 40,786 41,182 41,637 42,109 42,616 43,112 43,645 44,270 44,977 45,824 46,666 47,546 48,417 49,365 50,488
18-Jul 343 37,663 38,647 39,002 39,330 39,695 40,056 40,436 40,829 41,280 41,748 42,250 42,742 43,271 43,890 44,591 45,430 46,266 47,138 48,001 48,941 50,054 51,222
17-Jul 401 37,320 38,647 38,972 39,334 39,691 40,068 40,457 40,904 41,368 41,865 42,353 42,877 43,490 44,185 45,017 45,844 46,708 47,564 48,496 49,598 50,756 52,075
16-Jul 447 36,919 38,553 38,911 39,264 39,637 40,022 40,465 40,923 41,416 41,898 42,416 43,023 43,710 44,533 45,352 46,206 47,053 47,975 49,066 50,210 51,516 52,963
15-Jul 453 36,472 38,440 38,789 39,157 39,538 39,975 40,428 40,914 41,390 41,903 42,502 43,181 43,994 44,803 45,647 46,483 47,394 48,471 49,602 50,892 52,321 53,876
14-Jul 499 36,019 38,307 38,671 39,046 39,478 39,926 40,406 40,876 41,382 41,974 42,645 43,447 44,246 45,080 45,906 46,805 47,869 48,986 50,260 51,672 53,207 55,179
13-Jul 494 35,520 38,135 38,506 38,931 39,372 39,846 40,310 40,809 41,392 42,054 42,845 43,633 44,455 45,270 46,157 47,206 48,308 49,564 50,956 52,470 54,414 56,557
12-Jul 490 35,026 37,970 38,390 38,825 39,292 39,749 40,241 40,817 41,469 42,250 43,026 43,837 44,640 45,515 46,550 47,636 48,874 50,247 51,740 53,657 55,770 58,131
11-Jul 666 34,536 37,853 38,282 38,742 39,193 39,678 40,246 40,889 41,659 42,424 43,224 44,016 44,878 45,899 46,969 48,191 49,544 51,016 52,907 54,990 57,317 60,074
10-Jul 681 33,870 37,543 37,995 38,437 38,913 39,470 40,100 40,855 41,606 42,390 43,167 44,013 45,013 46,064 47,261 48,589 50,032 51,886 53,929 56,212 58,916 61,809
09-Jul 729 33,189 37,231 37,665 38,131 38,676 39,294 40,034 40,770 41,538 42,299 43,128 44,108 45,137 46,311 47,612 49,026 50,843 52,845 55,082 57,731 60,567 64,351
08-Jul 857 32,460 36,837 37,293 37,827 38,431 39,154 39,874 40,626 41,370 42,180 43,140 44,146 45,294 46,566 47,949 49,726 51,684 53,872 56,463 59,236 62,938 67,325
07-Jul 865 31,603 36,309 36,828 37,416 38,121 38,821 39,553 40,278 41,067 42,001 42,980 44,098 45,337 46,683 48,414 50,320 52,450 54,972 57,672 61,276 65,547 71,091
06-Jul 917 30,738 35,820 36,392 37,077 37,759 38,470 39,175 39,943 40,851 41,804 42,891 44,096 45,406 47,088 48,943 51,014 53,468 56,094 59,599 63,753 69,145 75,342
05-Jul 906 29,821 35,306 35,971 36,632 37,323 38,007 38,751 39,632 40,557 41,611 42,780 44,051 45,684 47,482 49,492 51,873 54,420 57,821 61,851 67,083 73,094 80,615
04-Jul 1,053 28,915 34,878 35,519 36,189 36,852 37,574 38,428 39,325 40,347 41,480 42,713 44,296 46,040 47,989 50,297 52,767 56,064 59,972 65,044 70,874 78,165 87,252
03-Jul 1,237 27,862 34,226 34,871 35,510 36,205 37,029 37,893 38,878 39,970 41,157 42,683 44,363 46,241 48,465 50,845 54,023 57,788 62,676 68,293 75,319 84,074 95,023
02-Jul 1,607 26,625 33,323 33,933 34,598 35,385 36,210 37,152 38,195 39,330 40,788 42,394 44,188 46,313 48,588 51,624 55,223 59,893 65,261 71,975 80,342 90,804 105,314
01-Jul 1,710 25,018 31,885 32,510 33,249 34,025 34,909 35,890 36,956 38,326 39,835 41,521 43,518 45,655 48,508 51,890 56,278 61,322 67,631 75,493 85,324 98,957 116,496
30-Jun 1,385 23,308 30,288 30,976 31,699 32,523 33,437 34,430 35,706 37,112 38,683 40,544 42,535 45,193 48,343 52,431 57,130 63,008 70,333 79,492 92,193 108,533 130,665
29-Jun 1,120 21,923 29,136 29,816 30,591 31,450 32,384 33,584 34,907 36,384 38,134 40,007 42,507 45,470 49,316 53,736 59,264 66,153 74,768 86,715 102,084 122,900 151,956
28-Jun 989 20,803 28,292 29,028 29,843 30,730 31,869 33,124 34,526 36,186 37,963 40,336 43,147 46,796 50,990 56,236 62,774 70,949 82,285 96,869 116,622 144,193 186,103
27-Jun 1,438 19,814 27,648 28,424 29,269 30,354 31,549 32,884 34,466 36,159 38,418 41,096 44,572 48,566 53,563 59,789 67,576 78,373 92,263 111,077 137,338 177,256 254,679
26-Jun 1,693 18,376 26,362 27,145 28,151 29,259 30,498 31,965 33,534 35,630 38,113 41,337 45,042 49,676 55,450 62,671 72,685 85,567 103,016 127,371 164,391 236,196 436,288
25-Jun 1,572 16,683 24,644 25,557 26,563 27,688 29,020 30,445 32,347 34,602 37,529 40,892 45,099 50,341 56,897 65,989 77,684 93,525 115,636 149,246 214,435 396,093 NA
24-Jun 1,344 15,111 23,149 24,060 25,079 26,285 27,576 29,299 31,342 33,992 37,039 40,849 45,598 51,536 59,771 70,364 84,712 104,740 135,183 194,229 358,770 NA NA
23-Jun 1,796 13,767 21,920 22,848 23,947 25,123 26,693 28,554 30,969 33,744 37,216 41,542 46,952 54,455 64,106 77,178 95,424 123,159 176,954 326,860 NA NA NA
22-Jun 1,650 11,971 19,868 20,823 21,846 23,211 24,829 26,929 29,342 32,361 36,123 40,827 47,351 55,743 67,109 82,975 107,092 153,869 284,219 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 1,754 10,321 17,953 18,835 20,012 21,407 23,217 25,298 27,901 31,144 35,200 40,824 48,059 57,860 71,538 92,331 132,661 245,044 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 1,643 8,567 15,634 16,611 17,769 19,272 20,999 23,159 25,851 29,218 33,886 39,892 48,027 59,381 76,640 110,116 203,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 1,919 6,924 13,425 14,361 15,576 16,971 18,718 20,893 23,614 27,387 32,241 38,816 47,993 61,942 88,998 164,392 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 1,885 5,005 10,381 11,259 12,268 13,530 15,103 17,070 19,797 23,306 28,058 34,691 44,775 64,332 118,830 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 1,486 3,120 7,018 7,647 8,434 9,415 10,641 12,341 14,528 17,491 21,626 27,911 40,103 74,076 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 1,634 1,634 4,005 4,417 4,931 5,573 6,463 7,609 9,160 11,326 14,618 21,003 38,795 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91
30-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
29-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
28-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
27-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
26-Jul NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
25-Jul NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84
24-Jul NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83
23-Jul NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81
22-Jul NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80
21-Jul 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78
20-Jul 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77
19-Jul 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75
18-Jul 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74
17-Jul 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72
16-Jul 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70
15-Jul 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68
14-Jul 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65
13-Jul 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63
12-Jul 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60
11-Jul 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57
10-Jul 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55
09-Jul 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52
08-Jul 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48
07-Jul 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44
06-Jul 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41
05-Jul 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37
04-Jul 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33
03-Jul 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29
02-Jul 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25
01-Jul 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21
30-Jun 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18
29-Jun 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14
28-Jun 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11
27-Jun 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08
26-Jun 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04
25-Jun 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA
24-Jun 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA
23-Jun 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA
22-Jun 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul 505 43,013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 43,142 43,365 43,711 44,106 44,506 44,848 45,210 45,557 45,960 46,346 46,792
30-Jul 618 42,508 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,636 42,856 43,198 43,588 43,984 44,322 44,679 45,022 45,420 45,802 46,243 46,723
29-Jul 493 41,890 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,016 42,233 42,570 42,955 43,344 43,678 44,030 44,368 44,760 45,136 45,571 46,043 46,516
28-Jul 367 41,397 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,522 41,736 42,069 42,449 42,834 43,163 43,512 43,845 44,233 44,605 45,034 45,501 45,968 46,506
27-Jul 424 41,030 NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,153 41,366 41,696 42,073 42,454 42,781 43,126 43,457 43,841 44,210 44,635 45,098 45,561 46,093 46,642
26-Jul 435 40,606 NA NA NA NA NA 40,728 40,938 41,265 41,638 42,016 42,339 42,680 43,008 43,388 43,753 44,174 44,632 45,090 45,617 46,160 46,789
25-Jul 536 40,171 NA NA NA NA 40,292 40,500 40,823 41,192 41,566 41,885 42,223 42,547 42,923 43,284 43,701 44,154 44,607 45,128 45,666 46,288 46,931
24-Jul 478 39,635 NA NA NA 39,754 39,959 40,278 40,642 41,011 41,326 41,660 41,979 42,351 42,707 43,117 43,565 44,012 44,526 45,057 45,670 46,305 46,980
23-Jul 354 39,157 NA NA 39,275 39,478 39,793 40,152 40,516 40,828 41,157 41,473 41,840 42,192 42,597 43,039 43,481 43,989 44,513 45,119 45,746 46,413 47,134
22-Jul 309 38,803 NA 38,920 39,121 39,433 39,789 40,150 40,459 40,785 41,098 41,462 41,810 42,212 42,650 43,088 43,592 44,111 44,711 45,333 45,994 46,708 47,541
21-Jul 269 38,494 38,610 38,809 39,119 39,472 39,830 40,137 40,460 40,771 41,131 41,477 41,876 42,311 42,745 43,244 43,760 44,355 44,972 45,628 46,336 47,162 47,991
20-Jul 236 38,225 38,538 38,845 39,197 39,552 39,856 40,178 40,486 40,844 41,187 41,584 42,015 42,446 42,942 43,454 44,045 44,658 45,309 46,012 46,833 47,656 48,586
19-Jul 326 37,989 38,606 38,955 39,308 39,610 39,929 40,236 40,592 40,933 41,327 41,756 42,184 42,677 43,186 43,773 44,382 45,029 45,728 46,544 47,361 48,286 49,316
18-Jul 343 37,663 38,620 38,971 39,270 39,587 39,891 40,243 40,582 40,972 41,397 41,822 42,311 42,815 43,398 44,001 44,643 45,336 46,144 46,955 47,872 48,892 49,906
17-Jul 401 37,320 38,616 38,912 39,226 39,527 39,877 40,212 40,599 41,020 41,441 41,926 42,425 43,002 43,600 44,236 44,923 45,724 46,527 47,436 48,447 49,451 50,663
16-Jul 447 36,919 38,494 38,805 39,103 39,448 39,780 40,163 40,579 40,996 41,475 41,969 42,540 43,132 43,761 44,440 45,233 46,028 46,926 47,927 48,920 50,119 51,488
15-Jul 453 36,472 38,335 38,629 38,971 39,299 39,677 40,088 40,500 40,973 41,461 42,025 42,610 43,231 43,902 44,685 45,470 46,358 47,346 48,328 49,512 50,864 52,407
14-Jul 499 36,019 38,149 38,487 38,810 39,184 39,590 39,997 40,464 40,946 41,503 42,080 42,694 43,357 44,130 44,905 45,782 46,758 47,727 48,897 50,232 51,756 53,654
13-Jul 494 35,520 37,954 38,273 38,641 39,042 39,442 39,903 40,379 40,928 41,497 42,102 42,756 43,519 44,283 45,148 46,111 47,066 48,220 49,537 51,039 52,910 54,824
12-Jul 490 35,026 37,740 38,104 38,499 38,894 39,348 39,817 40,359 40,920 41,517 42,162 42,913 43,667 44,520 45,469 46,412 47,549 48,848 50,329 52,175 54,061 56,235
11-Jul 666 34,536 37,570 37,960 38,350 38,798 39,260 39,795 40,348 40,936 41,572 42,313 43,057 43,897 44,833 45,762 46,884 48,164 49,625 51,445 53,305 55,449 58,008
10-Jul 681 33,870 37,228 37,610 38,050 38,503 39,027 39,570 40,147 40,770 41,497 42,226 43,050 43,969 44,880 45,980 47,235 48,668 50,453 52,277 54,379 56,890 59,797
09-Jul 729 33,189 36,854 37,285 37,729 38,242 38,774 39,339 39,950 40,663 41,377 42,185 43,085 43,977 45,055 46,286 47,689 49,438 51,226 53,286 55,746 58,595 62,323
08-Jul 857 32,460 36,466 36,900 37,402 37,922 38,475 39,073 39,770 40,468 41,258 42,138 43,011 44,066 45,269 46,642 48,352 50,101 52,116 54,521 57,308 60,954 65,228
07-Jul 865 31,603 35,926 36,415 36,921 37,460 38,041 38,720 39,400 40,169 41,026 41,876 42,902 44,074 45,410 47,076 48,778 50,740 53,082 55,795 59,345 63,505 69,463
06-Jul 917 30,738 35,418 35,911 36,434 37,000 37,660 38,322 39,070 39,903 40,730 41,728 42,867 44,168 45,787 47,443 49,351 51,629 54,268 57,720 61,767 67,562 74,043
05-Jul 906 29,821 34,839 35,347 35,896 36,536 37,178 37,904 38,712 39,515 40,483 41,589 42,850 44,421 46,027 47,879 50,089 52,649 55,998 59,925 65,546 71,834 79,772
04-Jul 1,053 28,915 34,273 34,806 35,426 36,049 36,752 37,536 38,314 39,253 40,325 41,548 43,072 44,629 46,424 48,567 51,049 54,297 58,104 63,555 69,652 77,348 86,496
03-Jul 1,237 27,862 33,538 34,136 34,736 35,414 36,169 36,919 37,824 38,857 40,035 41,503 43,004 44,733 46,798 49,190 52,320 55,988 61,240 67,115 74,532 83,347 93,855
02-Jul 1,607 26,625 32,621 33,194 33,842 34,563 35,280 36,144 37,131 38,258 39,660 41,094 42,747 44,721 47,006 49,997 53,502 58,521 64,136 71,223 79,646 89,688 104,365
01-Jul 1,710 25,018 31,190 31,799 32,477 33,150 33,963 34,890 35,948 37,267 38,614 40,167 42,021 44,169 46,979 50,273 54,989 60,265 66,924 74,839 84,275 98,066 115,045
30-Jun 1,385 23,308 29,626 30,257 30,884 31,641 32,506 33,491 34,719 35,975 37,422 39,149 41,150 43,768 46,837 51,231 56,145 62,350 69,724 78,515 91,363 107,182 130,732
29-Jun 1,120 21,923 28,459 29,049 29,761 30,574 31,501 32,656 33,837 35,198 36,823 38,705 41,167 44,054 48,186 52,809 58,645 65,581 73,849 85,934 100,813 122,964 156,865
28-Jun 989 20,803 27,565 28,241 29,012 29,892 30,988 32,108 33,400 34,942 36,727 39,064 41,803 45,725 50,111 55,649 62,230 70,076 81,544 95,663 116,682 148,851 189,944
27-Jun 1,438 19,814 26,898 27,633 28,471 29,515 30,582 31,812 33,280 34,981 37,207 39,816 43,551 47,729 53,003 59,272 66,745 77,667 91,115 111,134 141,775 180,914 258,633
26-Jun 1,693 18,376 25,627 26,405 27,373 28,363 29,503 30,865 32,443 34,507 36,926 40,390 44,265 49,156 54,970 61,901 72,030 84,502 103,069 131,486 167,784 239,863 439,472
25-Jun 1,572 16,683 23,972 24,851 25,749 26,785 28,022 29,454 31,328 33,524 36,669 40,187 44,628 49,906 56,198 65,394 76,717 93,573 119,372 152,326 217,764 398,983 NA
24-Jun 1,344 15,111 22,509 23,323 24,261 25,381 26,678 28,376 30,365 33,214 36,400 40,422 45,203 50,902 59,232 69,488 84,756 108,124 137,973 197,245 361,388 NA NA
23-Jun 1,796 13,767 21,249 22,103 23,124 24,305 25,852 27,664 30,260 33,163 36,827 41,183 46,375 53,964 63,308 77,218 98,507 125,701 179,702 329,245 NA NA NA
22-Jun 1,650 11,971 19,220 20,107 21,135 22,479 24,055 26,312 28,836 32,023 35,810 40,325 46,924 55,049 67,144 85,656 109,303 156,258 286,293 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 1,754 10,321 17,336 18,222 19,381 20,740 22,685 24,862 27,609 30,874 34,767 40,456 47,461 57,889 73,850 94,237 134,721 246,832 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 1,643 8,567 15,125 16,087 17,215 18,830 20,637 22,917 25,627 28,859 33,581 39,395 48,051 61,299 78,222 111,826 204,885 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 1,919 6,924 13,002 13,914 15,219 16,679 18,522 20,712 23,324 27,141 31,840 38,836 49,543 63,220 90,379 165,591 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 1,885 5,005 10,057 11,001 12,056 13,389 14,972 16,860 19,619 23,016 28,072 35,812 45,699 65,331 119,697 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 1,486 3,120 6,858 7,516 8,346 9,333 10,510 12,230 14,347 17,500 22,324 28,488 40,726 74,617 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 1,634 1,634 3,936 4,371 4,888 5,504 6,405 7,514 9,165 11,692 14,919 21,329 39,078 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92
30-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91
29-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
28-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
27-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
26-Jul NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
25-Jul NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
24-Jul NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84
23-Jul NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83
22-Jul NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82
21-Jul 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80
20-Jul 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79
19-Jul 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77
18-Jul 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75
17-Jul 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74
16-Jul 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72
15-Jul 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70
14-Jul 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67
13-Jul 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65
12-Jul 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62
11-Jul 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60
10-Jul 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57
09-Jul 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53
08-Jul 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50
07-Jul 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45
06-Jul 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42
05-Jul 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37
04-Jul 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33
03-Jul 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30
02-Jul 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26
01-Jul 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22
30-Jun 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18
29-Jun 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14
28-Jun 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11
27-Jun 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08
26-Jun 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04
25-Jun 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA
24-Jun 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA
23-Jun 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA
22-Jun 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

fall

The 2025 fall season starts Aug 1. Below are results from 2024

During the fall season, we partition adult Chinook counts into bright adults, tule adults, and tule stubbies based on a visual assessment of the number of fish of each class passing the dam during two hours of the day. These visual assignments are subject to error and are a tool for inseason forecasting but not post-season run reconstruction. The predictions below are based on these visual assesments.

Tule

The cumulative fall season Tule adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through October 30, 2024 is 88,974. The 10-year (2014–2023) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through October 30 is 99.7%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 89,242 (95% prediction interval = 89,135 – 89,419 and 50% prediction interval = 89,199 – 89,293) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2009–2023. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the summer season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through October 30 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 89,242 89,135 89,199 89,293 89,419 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Oct 1 88,974 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242
29-Oct 6 88,973 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241
28-Oct 8 88,967 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235
27-Oct 3 88,959 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227
26-Oct 3 88,956 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224
25-Oct 5 88,952 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220
24-Oct 2 88,947 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215
23-Oct 2 88,945 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,214 89,221
22-Oct 4 88,944 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,212 89,220 89,222
21-Oct 7 88,939 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,208 89,216 89,218 89,221
20-Oct 4 88,933 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,201 89,209 89,211 89,214 89,222
19-Oct 7 88,928 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,204 89,207 89,210 89,218 89,229
18-Oct 5 88,921 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,197 89,200 89,203 89,211 89,222 89,231
17-Oct 8 88,916 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,192 89,195 89,198 89,206 89,217 89,226 89,233
16-Oct 7 88,908 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,176 89,184 89,186 89,189 89,197 89,208 89,218 89,225 89,237
15-Oct 7 88,901 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,169 89,177 89,179 89,182 89,190 89,201 89,211 89,218 89,230 89,250
14-Oct 5 88,893 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,162 89,169 89,172 89,175 89,183 89,194 89,203 89,210 89,223 89,243 89,282
13-Oct 8 88,888 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,164 89,167 89,170 89,178 89,189 89,198 89,205 89,217 89,237 89,277 89,306
12-Oct 8 88,880 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,156 89,159 89,162 89,170 89,181 89,190 89,197 89,210 89,230 89,269 89,299 89,345
11-Oct 10 88,872 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,140 89,148 89,150 89,154 89,161 89,172 89,182 89,189 89,201 89,221 89,261 89,290 89,336 89,362
10-Oct 13 88,862 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,130 89,138 89,140 89,143 89,151 89,162 89,172 89,179 89,191 89,211 89,250 89,280 89,326 89,352 89,380
09-Oct 16 88,849 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,117 89,125 89,127 89,130 89,138 89,149 89,159 89,166 89,178 89,198 89,237 89,267 89,313 89,339 89,367 89,506
08-Oct 18 88,833 89,100 89,100 89,100 89,100 89,101 89,109 89,111 89,115 89,122 89,133 89,143 89,150 89,162 89,182 89,222 89,251 89,297 89,323 89,351 89,490 89,606
07-Oct 17 88,815 89,083 89,083 89,083 89,083 89,091 89,094 89,097 89,105 89,116 89,125 89,132 89,144 89,164 89,204 89,233 89,279 89,305 89,334 89,472 89,588 89,802
06-Oct 23 88,798 89,065 89,065 89,066 89,074 89,077 89,080 89,087 89,098 89,108 89,115 89,127 89,147 89,187 89,216 89,262 89,288 89,316 89,455 89,571 89,785 89,991
05-Oct 32 88,775 89,042 89,043 89,051 89,053 89,056 89,064 89,075 89,084 89,091 89,104 89,124 89,163 89,193 89,239 89,264 89,293 89,432 89,547 89,761 89,968 90,432
04-Oct 18 88,743 89,011 89,019 89,021 89,024 89,032 89,043 89,053 89,060 89,072 89,092 89,131 89,161 89,207 89,232 89,261 89,400 89,515 89,729 89,935 90,399 90,670
03-Oct 21 88,725 89,001 89,003 89,006 89,014 89,025 89,034 89,041 89,054 89,074 89,113 89,143 89,189 89,214 89,243 89,381 89,497 89,711 89,917 90,381 90,651 91,107
02-Oct 19 88,704 88,982 88,985 88,993 89,004 89,013 89,020 89,033 89,053 89,092 89,122 89,168 89,193 89,222 89,360 89,476 89,690 89,896 90,359 90,630 91,086 91,648
01-Oct 19 88,685 88,966 88,973 88,984 88,994 89,001 89,013 89,033 89,073 89,102 89,148 89,174 89,202 89,341 89,456 89,670 89,876 90,340 90,610 91,066 91,628 92,424
30-Sep 26 88,665 88,954 88,965 88,975 88,982 88,994 89,014 89,053 89,083 89,129 89,154 89,183 89,321 89,437 89,651 89,857 90,320 90,591 91,046 91,608 92,404 93,398
29-Sep 66 88,640 88,939 88,949 88,956 88,968 88,988 89,027 89,057 89,103 89,128 89,157 89,295 89,411 89,625 89,830 90,294 90,564 91,020 91,581 92,377 93,370 94,321
28-Sep 143 88,573 88,882 88,889 88,901 88,921 88,961 88,990 89,036 89,061 89,090 89,229 89,344 89,558 89,763 90,226 90,496 90,952 91,512 92,307 93,301 94,251 95,376
27-Sep 105 88,431 88,746 88,758 88,778 88,817 88,847 88,893 88,918 88,947 89,085 89,200 89,413 89,619 90,081 90,351 90,805 91,365 92,159 93,150 94,099 95,222 97,019
26-Sep 56 88,325 88,653 88,672 88,712 88,741 88,787 88,812 88,841 88,979 89,094 89,307 89,512 89,974 90,243 90,697 91,256 92,049 93,039 93,987 95,109 96,903 98,789
25-Sep 51 88,269 88,616 88,655 88,685 88,730 88,756 88,784 88,922 89,037 89,250 89,455 89,916 90,186 90,639 91,198 91,991 92,980 93,927 95,048 96,841 98,727 101,048
24-Sep 151 88,218 88,604 88,633 88,679 88,705 88,733 88,871 88,986 89,199 89,403 89,864 90,134 90,587 91,146 91,937 92,927 93,873 94,993 96,785 98,670 100,989 103,475
23-Sep 102 88,067 88,482 88,527 88,553 88,581 88,719 88,833 89,046 89,250 89,711 89,979 90,432 90,990 91,780 92,768 93,713 94,831 96,620 98,501 100,817 103,297 106,785
22-Sep 119 87,966 88,425 88,450 88,479 88,616 88,731 88,943 89,147 89,607 89,875 90,327 90,885 91,674 92,660 93,604 94,721 96,508 98,387 100,700 103,178 106,662 110,617
21-Sep 227 87,847 88,331 88,359 88,497 88,611 88,823 89,027 89,486 89,754 90,206 90,762 91,550 92,535 93,478 94,593 96,378 98,254 100,564 103,039 106,518 110,467 116,164
20-Sep 493 87,620 88,131 88,268 88,382 88,594 88,797 89,255 89,522 89,973 90,528 91,314 92,296 93,237 94,349 96,129 98,001 100,305 102,773 106,243 110,182 115,864 122,748
19-Sep 70 87,127 87,771 87,884 88,095 88,297 88,752 89,018 89,466 90,018 90,800 91,777 92,712 93,818 95,588 97,449 99,740 102,194 105,644 109,562 115,211 122,057 128,731
18-Sep 457 87,057 87,814 88,024 88,227 88,682 88,947 89,395 89,946 90,727 91,703 92,637 93,743 95,511 97,371 99,660 102,112 105,560 109,474 115,119 121,959 128,628 138,052
17-Sep 1,103 86,600 87,563 87,764 88,216 88,480 88,926 89,474 90,251 91,222 92,151 93,251 95,010 96,860 99,137 101,577 105,006 108,900 114,515 121,319 127,953 137,328 146,720
16-Sep 680 85,497 86,646 87,093 87,353 87,793 88,334 89,102 90,060 90,978 92,063 93,800 95,626 97,874 100,283 103,668 107,513 113,056 119,774 126,323 135,578 144,851 158,131
15-Sep 575 84,817 86,400 86,659 87,094 87,632 88,393 89,344 90,254 91,331 93,054 94,866 97,096 99,485 102,844 106,658 112,157 118,821 125,318 134,500 143,699 156,874 173,977
14-Sep 648 84,242 86,071 86,504 87,037 87,793 88,738 89,642 90,712 92,423 94,222 96,437 98,810 102,146 105,934 111,397 118,015 124,468 133,588 142,724 155,810 172,797 186,245
13-Sep 957 83,594 85,838 86,367 87,118 88,055 88,952 90,013 91,712 93,497 95,695 98,050 101,360 105,119 110,539 117,107 123,510 132,560 141,626 154,611 171,467 184,812 203,888
12-Sep 694 82,636 85,379 86,120 87,047 87,934 88,983 90,662 92,427 94,600 96,927 100,200 103,915 109,274 115,766 122,096 131,042 140,004 152,840 169,504 182,696 201,554 218,549
11-Sep 695 81,942 85,397 86,315 87,195 88,235 89,900 91,650 93,804 96,113 99,358 103,042 108,355 114,793 121,070 129,941 138,828 151,556 168,080 181,161 199,860 216,712 239,853
10-Sep 1,126 81,247 85,584 86,455 87,487 89,138 90,873 93,009 95,298 98,516 102,169 107,437 113,820 120,044 128,839 137,651 150,271 166,655 179,625 198,166 214,875 237,820 278,970
09-Sep 1,055 80,122 85,257 86,275 87,902 89,614 91,721 93,978 97,150 100,753 105,948 112,243 118,381 127,054 135,743 148,189 164,346 177,136 195,420 211,898 234,524 275,104 329,016
08-Sep 1,455 79,067 85,139 86,745 88,434 90,513 92,741 95,872 99,427 104,554 110,766 116,822 125,382 133,957 146,239 162,183 174,804 192,848 209,109 231,437 271,483 324,686 413,170
07-Sep 5,227 77,612 85,149 86,806 88,847 91,034 94,107 97,597 102,629 108,727 114,672 123,074 131,491 143,547 159,197 171,587 189,298 205,260 227,178 266,486 318,710 405,566 489,445
06-Sep 4,620 72,385 80,960 82,864 84,903 87,769 91,024 95,717 101,404 106,949 114,785 122,635 133,879 148,476 160,031 176,549 191,436 211,877 248,539 297,245 378,251 456,482 558,451
05-Sep 2,088 67,765 77,575 79,484 82,167 85,214 89,608 94,932 100,123 107,459 114,808 125,334 138,999 149,817 165,281 179,218 198,354 232,676 278,273 354,110 427,347 522,808 666,323
04-Sep 3,460 65,677 77,035 79,635 82,588 86,847 92,007 97,038 104,148 111,271 121,472 134,716 145,201 160,188 173,695 192,243 225,507 269,699 343,198 414,179 506,699 645,792 872,338
03-Sep 3,073 62,216 75,440 78,237 82,271 87,160 91,925 98,661 105,408 115,072 127,619 137,550 151,748 164,544 182,114 213,625 255,489 325,116 392,357 480,002 611,767 826,377 1,009,025
02-Sep 3,985 59,143 74,372 78,207 82,854 87,384 93,787 100,201 109,388 121,314 130,756 144,252 156,416 173,118 203,073 242,869 309,056 372,975 456,291 581,547 785,555 959,181 1,151,485
01-Sep 3,946 55,158 72,938 77,271 81,497 87,468 93,450 102,018 113,140 121,945 134,533 145,876 161,453 189,390 226,504 288,232 347,844 425,546 542,362 732,625 894,552 1,073,898 1,329,719
31-Aug 4,285 51,212 71,743 75,666 81,210 86,764 94,719 105,046 113,221 124,908 135,440 149,903 175,841 210,300 267,612 322,959 395,102 503,561 680,213 830,555 997,071 1,234,591 1,501,947
30-Aug 4,625 46,927 69,335 74,415 79,505 86,794 96,257 103,748 114,457 124,108 137,360 161,128 192,704 245,221 295,938 362,044 461,429 623,300 761,063 913,646 1,131,293 1,376,280 1,654,388
29-Aug 6,537 42,302 67,080 71,668 78,239 86,769 93,522 103,176 111,875 123,822 145,247 173,710 221,051 266,768 326,360 415,948 561,864 686,049 823,593 1,019,787 1,240,627 1,491,324 1,736,783
28-Aug 8,191 35,764 60,592 66,148 73,360 79,069 87,230 94,586 104,686 122,800 146,864 186,889 225,541 275,923 351,666 475,031 580,024 696,311 862,185 1,048,895 1,260,849 1,468,373 1,755,362
27-Aug 4,764 27,573 50,998 56,558 60,959 67,252 72,922 80,709 94,674 113,227 144,084 173,884 212,726 271,122 366,232 447,178 536,831 664,714 808,661 972,069 1,132,063 1,353,322 1,615,791
26-Aug 2,094 22,809 46,787 50,428 55,633 60,324 66,765 78,318 93,666 119,192 143,843 175,975 224,281 302,960 369,921 444,086 549,875 668,953 804,130 936,483 1,119,516 1,336,640 1,666,432
25-Aug 1,720 20,715 45,798 50,526 54,786 60,636 71,128 85,067 108,249 130,638 159,820 203,691 275,147 335,961 403,317 499,394 607,540 730,307 850,509 1,016,739 1,213,930 1,513,446 1,693,116
24-Aug 1,416 18,995 46,331 50,237 55,601 65,222 78,004 99,262 119,791 146,550 186,779 252,302 308,067 369,830 457,930 557,098 669,672 779,894 932,322 1,113,141 1,387,789 1,552,541 1,768,291
23-Aug 2,347 17,580 46,493 51,457 60,361 72,190 91,863 110,862 135,627 172,857 233,497 285,104 342,264 423,798 515,573 619,757 721,763 862,829 1,030,171 1,284,347 1,436,819 1,636,488 1,935,177
22-Aug 1,501 15,233 44,588 52,304 62,554 79,601 96,064 117,523 149,784 202,329 247,048 296,578 367,228 446,753 537,030 625,420 747,657 892,661 1,112,910 1,245,029 1,418,046 1,676,865 1,904,168
21-Aug 2,643 13,732 47,150 56,390 71,757 86,598 105,942 135,024 182,391 222,704 267,353 331,041 402,730 484,111 563,791 673,982 804,698 1,003,243 1,122,344 1,278,311 1,511,626 1,716,531 1,912,141
20-Aug 3,429 11,089 45,537 57,947 69,932 85,553 109,038 147,289 179,844 215,900 267,331 325,223 390,942 455,287 544,272 649,830 810,165 906,344 1,032,295 1,220,707 1,386,177 1,544,142 1,775,167
19-Aug 2,978 7,660 40,030 48,309 59,100 75,324 101,748 124,236 149,144 184,673 224,664 270,063 314,513 375,983 448,903 559,662 626,103 713,110 843,265 957,572 1,066,694 1,226,286 1,370,876
18-Aug 1,852 4,682 29,526 36,121 46,037 62,187 75,932 91,155 112,870 137,312 165,060 192,227 229,797 274,365 342,060 382,668 435,845 515,395 585,258 651,952 749,493 837,865 950,290
17-Aug 1,252 2,830 21,834 27,827 37,589 45,897 55,099 68,224 82,999 99,770 116,192 138,901 165,840 206,758 231,304 263,447 311,531 353,760 394,073 453,032 506,448 574,403 613,608
16-Aug 742 1,578 15,514 20,956 25,588 30,718 38,036 46,273 55,623 64,778 77,439 92,458 115,270 128,955 146,875 173,682 197,226 219,701 252,571 282,351 320,237 342,094 361,926
15-Aug 135 835 11,096 13,548 16,265 20,139 24,500 29,451 34,299 41,002 48,954 61,033 68,279 77,767 91,961 104,426 116,326 133,730 149,498 169,558 181,131 191,631 198,558
14-Aug 186 700 11,360 13,638 16,887 20,543 24,695 28,759 34,380 41,048 51,176 57,251 65,207 77,109 87,561 97,539 112,132 125,353 142,173 151,877 160,682 166,490 173,161
13-Aug 154 514 10,014 12,400 15,085 18,133 21,118 25,245 30,142 37,579 42,040 47,882 56,621 64,296 71,623 82,339 92,047 104,398 111,524 117,989 122,254 127,153 128,589
12-Aug 34 360 8,676 10,555 12,688 14,776 17,664 21,090 26,294 29,415 33,503 39,618 44,988 50,115 57,613 64,406 73,048 78,034 82,558 85,542 88,970 89,974 89,974
11-Aug 55 326 9,554 11,484 13,374 15,988 19,089 23,799 26,624 30,324 35,859 40,720 45,360 52,146 58,295 66,117 70,629 74,724 77,425 80,527 81,437 81,437 81,437
10-Aug 56 271 9,540 11,110 13,282 15,857 19,770 22,117 25,191 29,788 33,826 37,681 43,318 48,426 54,924 58,673 62,074 64,318 66,895 67,651 67,651 67,651 NA
09-Aug 42 215 8,810 10,532 12,575 15,677 17,538 19,975 23,621 26,823 29,880 34,350 38,401 43,553 46,526 49,223 51,002 53,046 53,645 53,645 53,645 NA NA
08-Aug 10 173 8,488 10,134 12,634 14,134 16,098 19,036 21,617 24,080 27,683 30,947 35,100 37,495 39,669 41,103 42,750 43,233 43,233 43,233 NA NA NA
07-Aug 21 162 9,522 11,872 13,281 15,127 17,888 20,313 22,628 26,013 29,080 32,982 35,233 37,276 38,623 40,171 40,624 40,624 40,624 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 41 142 10,344 11,572 13,180 15,586 17,698 19,715 22,665 25,337 28,737 30,699 32,478 33,652 35,001 35,396 35,396 35,396 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 35 101 8,227 9,370 11,080 12,582 14,016 16,113 18,013 20,430 21,825 23,090 23,924 24,883 25,164 25,164 25,164 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 27 65 6,073 7,181 8,155 9,084 10,443 11,675 13,241 14,145 14,965 15,506 16,127 16,309 16,309 16,309 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 16 38 4,221 4,793 5,339 6,138 6,862 7,783 8,314 8,796 9,114 9,479 9,586 9,586 9,586 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 18 22 2,766 3,082 3,543 3,960 4,492 4,798 5,077 5,260 5,471 5,533 5,533 5,533 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 4 4 593 682 763 865 924 977 1,013 1,053 1,065 1,065 1,065 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
11-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
10-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
09-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
08-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
07-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
04-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
03-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97
02-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97
01-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96
30-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95
29-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94
28-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93
27-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91
26-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89
25-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87
24-Sep 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85
23-Sep 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82
22-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80
21-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76
20-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71
19-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68
18-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63
17-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59
16-Sep 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54
15-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49
14-Sep 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45
13-Sep 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41
12-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38
11-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34
10-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29
09-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24
08-Sep 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19
07-Sep 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16
06-Sep 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13
05-Sep 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10
04-Sep 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08
03-Sep 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06
02-Sep 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05
01-Sep 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04
31-Aug 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
30-Aug 0.68 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03
29-Aug 0.63 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
28-Aug 0.59 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
27-Aug 0.54 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
26-Aug 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
25-Aug 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Aug 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Aug 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Aug 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Aug 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Aug 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
19-Aug 0.19 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
18-Aug 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
17-Aug 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
16-Aug 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Aug 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Oct 1 88,974 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242 89,242
29-Oct 6 88,973 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241 89,241
28-Oct 8 88,967 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235 89,235
27-Oct 3 88,959 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227 89,227
26-Oct 3 88,956 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224 89,224
25-Oct 5 88,952 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220
24-Oct 2 88,947 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,215 89,216
23-Oct 2 88,945 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,213 89,214 89,230
22-Oct 4 88,944 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,211 89,213 89,228 89,233
21-Oct 7 88,939 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,207 89,208 89,224 89,229 89,236
20-Oct 4 88,933 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,200 89,202 89,217 89,222 89,229 89,244
19-Oct 7 88,928 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,196 89,197 89,213 89,218 89,224 89,240 89,262
18-Oct 5 88,921 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,189 89,190 89,206 89,211 89,217 89,233 89,255 89,274
17-Oct 8 88,916 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,184 89,185 89,201 89,206 89,212 89,227 89,250 89,269 89,283
16-Oct 7 88,908 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,175 89,177 89,192 89,197 89,204 89,219 89,241 89,260 89,274 89,299
15-Oct 7 88,901 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,168 89,170 89,185 89,190 89,197 89,212 89,234 89,253 89,267 89,292 89,332
14-Oct 5 88,893 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,161 89,162 89,178 89,183 89,189 89,205 89,227 89,246 89,260 89,285 89,325 89,404
13-Oct 8 88,888 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,156 89,157 89,173 89,178 89,184 89,200 89,222 89,241 89,255 89,279 89,320 89,399 89,458
12-Oct 8 88,880 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,148 89,149 89,165 89,170 89,176 89,192 89,214 89,233 89,247 89,271 89,312 89,391 89,450 89,513
11-Oct 10 88,872 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,139 89,141 89,156 89,161 89,168 89,183 89,205 89,224 89,238 89,263 89,303 89,382 89,442 89,504 89,537
10-Oct 13 88,862 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,129 89,131 89,146 89,151 89,158 89,173 89,195 89,214 89,228 89,253 89,293 89,372 89,431 89,494 89,527 89,542
09-Oct 16 88,849 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,116 89,118 89,133 89,138 89,145 89,160 89,182 89,201 89,215 89,240 89,280 89,359 89,418 89,481 89,513 89,529 89,682
08-Oct 18 88,833 89,100 89,100 89,100 89,100 89,102 89,117 89,123 89,129 89,144 89,166 89,185 89,199 89,224 89,264 89,343 89,403 89,465 89,498 89,513 89,666 89,708
07-Oct 17 88,815 89,083 89,083 89,083 89,084 89,100 89,105 89,111 89,126 89,148 89,167 89,182 89,206 89,246 89,325 89,385 89,447 89,480 89,495 89,648 89,690 89,811
06-Oct 23 88,798 89,065 89,065 89,067 89,082 89,088 89,094 89,109 89,131 89,150 89,164 89,189 89,229 89,308 89,367 89,430 89,463 89,478 89,631 89,673 89,793 89,875
05-Oct 32 88,775 89,042 89,044 89,059 89,064 89,071 89,086 89,108 89,127 89,141 89,166 89,206 89,285 89,344 89,407 89,439 89,454 89,608 89,649 89,770 89,851 90,136
04-Oct 18 88,743 89,012 89,027 89,032 89,039 89,054 89,076 89,095 89,109 89,134 89,174 89,253 89,312 89,375 89,407 89,422 89,576 89,617 89,738 89,819 90,104 90,207
03-Oct 21 88,725 89,009 89,014 89,021 89,036 89,058 89,077 89,091 89,116 89,156 89,234 89,294 89,356 89,389 89,404 89,557 89,599 89,719 89,800 90,086 90,188 90,465
02-Oct 19 88,704 88,993 89,000 89,015 89,037 89,056 89,070 89,095 89,135 89,214 89,273 89,335 89,368 89,383 89,536 89,578 89,698 89,779 90,065 90,167 90,444 90,745
01-Oct 19 88,685 88,980 88,995 89,017 89,036 89,050 89,075 89,115 89,194 89,253 89,316 89,348 89,363 89,517 89,558 89,679 89,760 90,045 90,147 90,424 90,725 91,325
30-Sep 26 88,665 88,976 88,998 89,017 89,031 89,056 89,096 89,175 89,234 89,296 89,329 89,344 89,497 89,539 89,659 89,740 90,025 90,128 90,405 90,705 91,305 91,973
29-Sep 66 88,640 88,972 88,991 89,005 89,030 89,070 89,149 89,208 89,270 89,303 89,318 89,471 89,513 89,633 89,714 89,999 90,101 90,378 90,679 91,279 91,946 92,582
28-Sep 143 88,573 88,924 88,938 88,963 89,003 89,082 89,141 89,204 89,236 89,251 89,404 89,446 89,566 89,647 89,932 90,034 90,310 90,611 91,210 91,877 92,512 93,391
27-Sep 105 88,431 88,795 88,820 88,860 88,938 88,998 89,060 89,092 89,107 89,260 89,302 89,422 89,503 89,787 89,889 90,165 90,465 91,063 91,729 92,363 93,241 94,933
26-Sep 56 88,325 88,714 88,754 88,832 88,891 88,954 88,986 89,001 89,154 89,195 89,315 89,396 89,680 89,782 90,058 90,357 90,955 91,620 92,253 93,129 94,820 96,127
25-Sep 51 88,269 88,698 88,776 88,835 88,897 88,930 88,945 89,097 89,139 89,258 89,339 89,623 89,725 90,000 90,300 90,897 91,561 92,195 93,070 94,759 96,065 98,153
24-Sep 151 88,218 88,725 88,784 88,846 88,878 88,893 89,046 89,087 89,207 89,288 89,571 89,673 89,949 90,248 90,845 91,509 92,142 93,017 94,705 96,010 98,097 99,900
23-Sep 102 88,067 88,632 88,694 88,726 88,741 88,893 88,935 89,054 89,135 89,418 89,520 89,795 90,093 90,689 91,352 91,984 92,857 94,543 95,846 97,929 99,729 102,361
22-Sep 119 87,966 88,592 88,624 88,639 88,791 88,832 88,951 89,032 89,315 89,416 89,691 89,989 90,584 91,246 91,878 92,750 94,433 95,735 97,816 99,614 102,243 105,329
21-Sep 227 87,847 88,504 88,519 88,671 88,712 88,831 88,912 89,194 89,296 89,570 89,868 90,462 91,123 91,754 92,625 94,306 95,606 97,684 99,479 102,105 105,187 110,082
20-Sep 493 87,620 88,291 88,442 88,483 88,602 88,682 88,964 89,065 89,339 89,636 90,229 90,888 91,517 92,386 94,062 95,359 97,431 99,222 101,842 104,915 109,798 113,908
19-Sep 70 87,127 87,944 87,985 88,103 88,183 88,463 88,564 88,835 89,131 89,721 90,376 91,001 91,866 93,533 94,822 96,883 98,664 101,268 104,324 109,180 113,267 117,623
18-Sep 457 87,057 87,914 88,033 88,112 88,392 88,493 88,765 89,060 89,649 90,304 90,929 91,792 93,458 94,746 96,805 98,585 101,187 104,241 109,093 113,176 117,529 123,908
17-Sep 1,103 86,600 87,571 87,650 87,928 88,028 88,299 88,593 89,179 89,830 90,452 91,311 92,968 94,249 96,297 98,068 100,656 103,694 108,520 112,582 116,913 123,257 130,425
16-Sep 680 85,497 86,533 86,808 86,907 87,174 87,464 88,042 88,686 89,299 90,147 91,783 93,048 95,071 96,818 99,374 102,373 107,138 111,148 115,423 121,687 128,764 137,372
15-Sep 575 84,817 86,118 86,216 86,481 86,768 87,342 87,981 88,589 89,430 91,053 92,308 94,315 96,048 98,584 101,559 106,286 110,264 114,505 120,719 127,739 136,280 144,010
14-Sep 648 84,242 85,631 85,894 86,180 86,750 87,384 87,988 88,824 90,436 91,682 93,675 95,397 97,915 100,870 105,565 109,516 113,729 119,901 126,873 135,355 143,034 151,907
13-Sep 957 83,594 85,233 85,517 86,082 86,711 87,311 88,140 89,740 90,977 92,954 94,663 97,162 100,094 104,752 108,673 112,853 118,978 125,897 134,314 141,933 150,738 162,727
12-Sep 694 82,636 84,538 85,097 85,719 86,311 87,131 88,712 89,935 91,890 93,579 96,049 98,948 103,553 107,429 111,561 117,616 124,455 132,776 140,308 149,012 160,864 171,863
11-Sep 695 81,942 84,382 84,998 85,586 86,399 87,967 89,179 91,118 92,792 95,242 98,116 102,683 106,526 110,624 116,627 123,409 131,660 139,129 147,760 159,512 170,418 187,466
10-Sep 1,126 81,247 84,278 84,861 85,667 87,221 88,423 90,345 92,006 94,435 97,284 101,812 105,623 109,686 115,639 122,363 130,544 137,949 146,507 158,160 168,974 185,877 222,014
09-Sep 1,055 80,122 83,685 84,479 86,013 87,198 89,093 90,731 93,126 95,936 100,402 104,160 108,166 114,036 120,668 128,735 136,038 144,477 155,968 166,632 183,301 218,938 270,752
08-Sep 1,455 79,067 83,368 84,880 86,050 87,921 89,537 91,900 94,674 99,080 102,789 106,742 112,535 119,079 127,041 134,247 142,575 153,915 164,439 180,888 216,056 267,188 362,221
07-Sep 5,227 77,612 83,318 84,467 86,302 87,889 90,209 92,931 97,256 100,897 104,778 110,464 116,888 124,702 131,776 139,951 151,082 161,412 177,559 212,079 262,270 355,553 430,370
06-Sep 4,620 72,385 78,778 80,490 81,970 84,133 86,672 90,706 94,102 97,721 103,024 109,015 116,304 122,901 130,526 140,907 150,542 165,601 197,796 244,607 331,607 401,385 470,925
05-Sep 2,088 67,765 75,353 76,738 78,764 81,141 84,917 88,096 91,484 96,449 102,058 108,881 115,057 122,195 131,914 140,933 155,031 185,172 228,995 310,443 375,767 440,868 540,578
04-Sep 3,460 65,677 74,373 76,337 78,640 82,300 85,381 88,665 93,477 98,913 105,526 111,512 118,430 127,849 136,591 150,254 179,466 221,939 300,877 364,188 427,284 523,922 730,280
03-Sep 3,073 62,216 72,315 74,497 77,964 80,883 83,994 88,552 93,701 99,966 105,637 112,190 121,113 129,394 142,338 170,010 210,246 285,025 345,000 404,772 496,318 691,803 868,124
02-Sep 3,985 59,143 70,817 74,113 76,887 79,845 84,178 89,073 95,028 100,418 106,648 115,130 123,002 135,307 161,612 199,860 270,945 327,958 384,777 471,800 657,629 825,240 983,924
01-Sep 3,946 55,158 69,119 71,707 74,465 78,506 83,071 88,625 93,652 99,462 107,373 114,714 126,190 150,723 186,393 252,689 305,860 358,851 440,011 613,318 769,635 917,627 1,175,904
31-Aug 4,285 51,212 66,577 69,137 72,889 77,128 82,285 86,952 92,347 99,691 106,508 117,162 139,940 173,059 234,611 283,979 333,178 408,532 569,441 714,575 851,980 1,091,779 1,351,796
30-Aug 4,625 46,927 63,353 66,791 70,675 75,400 79,677 84,620 91,350 97,596 107,359 128,231 158,579 214,981 260,218 305,301 374,350 521,796 654,787 780,695 1,000,430 1,238,691 1,368,392
29-Aug 6,537 42,302 60,208 63,709 67,968 71,824 76,279 82,346 87,977 96,777 115,592 142,949 193,792 234,570 275,209 337,453 470,366 590,248 703,746 901,823 1,116,600 1,233,517 1,405,141
28-Aug 8,191 35,764 53,863 57,464 60,724 64,491 69,620 74,380 81,821 97,728 120,857 163,842 198,318 232,677 285,301 397,673 499,029 594,986 762,451 944,036 1,042,884 1,187,985 1,441,283
27-Aug 4,764 27,573 44,303 46,816 49,720 53,675 57,345 63,081 75,345 93,176 126,317 152,896 179,386 219,957 306,592 384,733 458,713 587,823 727,818 804,026 915,894 1,111,178 1,326,100
26-Aug 2,094 22,809 38,728 41,130 44,402 47,438 52,183 62,328 77,079 104,494 126,481 148,394 181,956 253,624 318,265 379,464 486,268 602,077 665,119 757,660 919,206 1,096,997 1,521,400
25-Aug 1,720 20,715 37,354 40,325 43,083 47,392 56,606 70,002 94,901 114,870 134,771 165,252 230,340 289,047 344,627 441,626 546,803 604,058 688,103 834,818 996,287 1,381,728 1,634,624
24-Aug 1,416 18,995 36,977 39,506 43,457 51,906 64,190 87,021 105,332 123,581 151,531 211,215 265,048 316,014 404,959 501,404 553,905 630,972 765,506 913,568 1,267,007 1,498,905 1,750,556
23-Aug 2,347 17,580 36,561 40,218 48,037 59,406 80,535 97,481 114,370 140,237 195,472 245,292 292,459 374,775 464,031 512,618 583,941 708,447 845,474 1,172,568 1,387,182 1,620,076 2,017,940
22-Aug 1,501 15,233 34,850 41,625 51,476 69,785 84,469 99,104 121,518 169,380 212,550 253,421 324,749 402,091 444,193 505,995 613,882 732,618 1,016,051 1,202,017 1,403,824 1,748,581 2,062,222
21-Aug 2,643 13,732 37,523 46,404 62,908 76,146 89,338 109,543 152,689 191,605 228,449 292,748 362,469 400,422 456,134 553,390 660,425 915,929 1,083,570 1,265,491 1,576,275 1,859,010 1,978,091
20-Aug 3,429 11,089 37,473 50,801 61,491 72,144 88,461 123,304 154,730 184,483 236,408 292,710 323,359 368,349 446,888 533,324 739,655 875,033 1,021,942 1,272,914 1,501,236 1,597,400 1,907,820
19-Aug 2,978 7,660 35,094 42,478 49,837 61,109 85,178 106,888 127,441 163,311 202,204 223,377 254,456 308,710 368,420 510,954 604,473 705,958 879,330 1,037,055 1,103,485 1,317,924 1,533,213
18-Aug 1,852 4,682 25,962 30,460 37,349 52,060 65,329 77,891 99,814 123,585 136,526 155,521 188,681 225,175 312,290 369,448 431,474 537,437 633,837 674,438 805,501 937,084 1,149,311
17-Aug 1,252 2,830 18,412 22,576 31,468 39,488 47,081 60,332 74,701 82,523 94,005 114,048 136,107 188,764 223,313 260,805 324,854 383,123 407,665 486,886 566,421 694,702 707,501
16-Aug 742 1,578 12,586 17,544 22,015 26,248 33,636 41,647 46,008 52,409 63,583 75,881 105,238 124,500 145,402 181,110 213,596 227,278 271,445 315,787 387,305 394,441 394,441
15-Aug 135 835 9,289 11,656 13,898 17,810 22,051 24,360 27,749 33,666 40,177 55,721 65,920 76,987 95,894 113,094 120,339 143,724 167,202 205,069 208,847 208,847 208,847
14-Aug 186 700 9,774 11,653 14,933 18,490 20,426 23,268 28,229 33,689 46,722 55,273 64,553 80,406 94,829 100,903 120,511 140,198 171,949 175,117 175,117 175,117 175,117
13-Aug 154 514 8,557 10,965 13,577 14,999 17,085 20,728 24,738 34,308 40,587 47,402 59,043 69,633 74,093 88,492 102,948 126,263 128,589 128,589 128,589 128,589 128,589
12-Aug 34 360 7,673 9,500 10,495 11,955 14,504 17,309 24,005 28,399 33,167 41,312 48,723 51,844 61,918 72,033 88,347 89,974 89,974 89,974 89,974 89,974 89,974
11-Aug 55 326 8,598 9,499 10,820 13,128 15,667 21,728 25,704 30,020 37,392 44,099 46,924 56,043 65,198 79,964 81,437 81,437 81,437 81,437 81,437 81,437 81,437
10-Aug 56 271 7,891 8,989 10,905 13,014 18,049 21,353 24,938 31,062 36,634 38,980 46,555 54,161 66,427 67,651 67,651 67,651 67,651 67,651 67,651 67,651 NA
09-Aug 42 215 7,128 8,648 10,320 14,313 16,932 19,775 24,632 29,050 30,910 36,917 42,948 52,675 53,645 53,645 53,645 53,645 53,645 53,645 53,645 NA NA
08-Aug 10 173 6,969 8,317 11,535 13,646 15,937 19,851 23,411 24,911 29,752 34,612 42,450 43,233 43,233 43,233 43,233 43,233 43,233 43,233 NA NA NA
07-Aug 21 162 7,815 10,839 12,823 14,975 18,653 21,999 23,408 27,957 32,524 39,890 40,624 40,624 40,624 40,624 40,624 40,624 40,624 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 41 142 9,444 11,172 13,048 16,252 19,167 20,395 24,359 28,338 34,756 35,396 35,396 35,396 35,396 35,396 35,396 35,396 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 35 101 7,943 9,276 11,554 13,627 14,500 17,317 20,146 24,709 25,164 25,164 25,164 25,164 25,164 25,164 25,164 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 27 65 6,012 7,488 8,832 9,397 11,224 13,057 16,014 16,309 16,309 16,309 16,309 16,309 16,309 16,309 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 16 38 4,402 5,191 5,524 6,597 7,675 9,413 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 18 22 2,996 3,188 3,807 4,429 5,433 5,533 5,533 5,533 5,533 5,533 5,533 5,533 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 4 4 614 733 853 1,046 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
13-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
12-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
11-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
10-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
09-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
08-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
07-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
04-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
03-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
02-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
01-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
30-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96
29-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96
28-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
27-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93
26-Sep 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92
25-Sep 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90
24-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88
23-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86
22-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84
21-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80
20-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77
19-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74
18-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70
17-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66
16-Sep 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62
15-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59
14-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55
13-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51
12-Sep 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48
11-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44
10-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37
09-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30
08-Sep 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22
07-Sep 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18
06-Sep 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15
05-Sep 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13
04-Sep 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09
03-Sep 0.86 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07
02-Sep 0.84 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06
01-Sep 0.80 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05
31-Aug 0.77 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
30-Aug 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
29-Aug 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03
28-Aug 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
27-Aug 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
26-Aug 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01
25-Aug 0.55 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Aug 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Aug 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Aug 0.44 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Aug 0.37 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Aug 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
19-Aug 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
18-Aug 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
17-Aug 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Aug 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Aug 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Bright

The cumulative fall season Bright adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through October 30, 2024 is 365,251. The 10-year (2014–2023) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through October 30 is 99.3%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 367,665 (95% prediction interval = 365,824 – 375,414 and 50% prediction interval = 366,723 – 369,209) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2009–2023. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the summer season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through October 30 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 367,665 365,824 366,723 369,209 375,414 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Oct 85 365,251 366,406 366,418 366,434 366,507 366,624 366,898 367,043 367,229 367,404 367,559 367,665 367,837 368,129 368,290 368,540 368,771 369,087 369,426 369,709 370,162 370,587
29-Oct 387 365,166 366,333 366,348 366,421 366,538 366,812 366,958 367,143 367,319 367,473 367,579 367,751 368,043 368,204 368,454 368,685 369,000 369,340 369,622 370,075 370,500 370,940
28-Oct 518 364,779 365,961 366,033 366,150 366,424 366,569 366,754 366,930 367,084 367,190 367,362 367,653 367,814 368,064 368,295 368,610 368,949 369,231 369,683 370,108 370,548 371,090
27-Oct 221 364,261 365,514 365,631 365,903 366,049 366,234 366,409 366,563 366,668 366,840 367,131 367,292 367,541 367,772 368,086 368,425 368,707 369,159 369,582 370,022 370,563 371,143
26-Oct 238 364,041 365,409 365,682 365,827 366,012 366,187 366,341 366,446 366,618 366,909 367,069 367,319 367,549 367,863 368,202 368,483 368,935 369,359 369,797 370,339 370,918 371,322
25-Oct 352 363,803 365,443 365,588 365,772 365,947 366,101 366,207 366,378 366,669 366,829 367,078 367,309 367,623 367,961 368,242 368,694 369,117 369,556 370,097 370,675 371,079 371,657
24-Oct 109 363,450 365,234 365,418 365,593 365,746 365,852 366,023 366,314 366,474 366,723 366,953 367,267 367,604 367,886 368,337 368,759 369,198 369,738 370,316 370,720 371,297 372,005
23-Oct 126 363,342 365,309 365,484 365,637 365,743 365,914 366,204 366,365 366,613 366,844 367,157 367,495 367,776 368,227 368,649 369,087 369,628 370,206 370,609 371,186 371,893 372,701
22-Oct 307 363,216 365,357 365,511 365,616 365,787 366,078 366,238 366,486 366,717 367,030 367,368 367,649 368,099 368,522 368,960 369,500 370,078 370,481 371,058 371,765 372,572 373,307
21-Oct 557 362,909 365,201 365,307 365,478 365,768 365,928 366,177 366,407 366,720 367,057 367,338 367,788 368,210 368,648 369,187 369,765 370,167 370,744 371,451 372,257 372,991 373,785
20-Oct 341 362,351 364,746 364,917 365,206 365,366 365,614 365,844 366,156 366,493 366,773 367,223 367,644 368,081 368,620 369,197 369,599 370,175 370,880 371,685 372,418 373,211 374,451
19-Oct 451 362,011 364,573 364,863 365,022 365,270 365,500 365,812 366,148 366,429 366,878 367,299 367,735 368,274 368,850 369,251 369,826 370,531 371,336 372,068 372,860 374,099 375,445
18-Oct 333 361,559 364,408 364,567 364,815 365,044 365,356 365,692 365,972 366,420 366,841 367,277 367,815 368,390 368,791 369,365 370,069 370,873 371,604 372,395 373,633 374,977 376,889
17-Oct 615 361,227 364,232 364,479 364,708 365,020 365,355 365,635 366,083 366,503 366,939 367,476 368,051 368,451 369,025 369,729 370,531 371,262 372,052 373,289 374,632 376,542 378,316
16-Oct 741 360,611 363,858 364,087 364,398 364,733 365,012 365,460 365,879 366,314 366,850 367,424 367,824 368,397 369,099 369,900 370,630 371,418 372,653 373,994 375,901 377,672 379,225
15-Oct 648 359,870 363,338 363,649 363,983 364,262 364,708 365,127 365,561 366,096 366,668 367,068 367,640 368,340 369,140 369,868 370,655 371,887 373,225 375,128 376,895 378,445 380,496
14-Oct 342 359,222 362,994 363,328 363,606 364,052 364,470 364,903 365,437 366,008 366,407 366,978 367,677 368,475 369,202 369,988 371,218 372,553 374,453 376,217 377,764 379,811 381,819
13-Oct 508 358,881 362,983 363,260 363,706 364,123 364,556 365,090 365,660 366,059 366,629 367,327 368,125 368,851 369,636 370,865 372,199 374,097 375,859 377,405 379,450 381,456 383,410
12-Oct 550 358,373 362,746 363,191 363,608 364,040 364,573 365,143 365,540 366,110 366,808 367,604 368,329 369,113 370,340 371,672 373,568 375,327 376,871 378,913 380,916 382,867 385,323
11-Oct 730 357,822 362,633 363,049 363,481 364,013 364,582 364,979 365,548 366,244 367,039 367,763 368,546 369,771 371,101 372,994 374,751 376,292 378,331 380,331 382,279 384,732 387,954
10-Oct 846 357,093 362,309 362,739 363,271 363,838 364,235 364,802 365,497 366,291 367,013 367,794 369,017 370,344 372,233 373,987 375,524 377,560 379,555 381,499 383,947 387,163 390,094
09-Oct 1,038 356,247 361,880 362,410 362,977 363,372 363,938 364,632 365,423 366,144 366,923 368,143 369,467 371,352 373,101 374,635 376,665 378,656 380,596 383,037 386,246 389,170 392,790
08-Oct 1,148 355,209 361,354 361,919 362,313 362,877 363,569 364,358 365,077 365,854 367,070 368,391 370,269 372,014 373,543 375,568 377,553 379,487 381,921 385,120 388,036 391,646 394,822
07-Oct 1,080 354,061 360,749 361,142 361,705 362,394 363,181 363,897 364,671 365,884 367,200 369,073 370,811 372,336 374,354 376,332 378,260 380,687 383,875 386,782 390,380 393,546 398,054
06-Oct 1,503 352,980 360,040 360,601 361,288 362,073 362,787 363,559 364,767 366,080 367,947 369,680 371,200 373,212 375,184 377,106 379,525 382,704 385,602 389,189 392,345 396,840 401,363
05-Oct 2,069 351,477 359,065 359,750 360,531 361,242 362,010 363,214 364,521 366,380 368,105 369,619 371,622 373,587 375,500 377,909 381,074 383,960 387,531 390,675 395,150 399,654 405,243
04-Oct 1,555 349,409 357,632 358,409 359,116 359,880 361,076 362,375 364,223 365,939 367,444 369,435 371,388 373,290 375,685 378,832 381,700 385,251 388,375 392,824 397,301 402,858 408,872
03-Oct 1,679 347,854 356,814 357,518 358,279 359,470 360,763 362,603 364,311 365,809 367,791 369,735 371,629 374,013 377,146 380,002 383,537 386,647 391,077 395,534 401,066 407,053 414,353
02-Oct 1,462 346,175 355,793 356,550 357,735 359,022 360,853 362,553 364,043 366,016 367,951 369,836 372,208 375,326 378,168 381,686 384,781 389,189 393,625 399,130 405,089 412,353 419,853
01-Oct 1,437 344,713 355,044 356,224 357,506 359,329 361,022 362,506 364,471 366,397 368,274 370,637 373,741 376,571 380,074 383,157 387,546 391,963 397,445 403,378 410,612 418,080 427,019
30-Sep 3,797 343,276 354,739 356,015 357,831 359,517 360,995 362,951 364,870 366,739 369,092 372,183 375,001 378,489 381,559 385,930 390,329 395,788 401,697 408,900 416,337 425,239 435,826
29-Sep 3,979 339,479 352,078 353,873 355,540 357,002 358,937 360,834 362,682 365,009 368,066 370,853 374,303 377,339 381,661 386,011 391,410 397,253 404,377 411,732 420,535 431,006 440,879
28-Sep 3,790 335,500 349,725 351,373 352,817 354,730 356,605 358,431 360,731 363,752 366,506 369,916 372,916 377,188 381,487 386,822 392,597 399,637 406,906 415,606 425,954 435,711 445,984
27-Sep 2,118 331,710 347,403 348,832 350,722 352,576 354,382 356,655 359,643 362,366 365,737 368,703 372,927 377,177 382,452 388,162 395,123 402,309 410,911 421,141 430,789 440,945 454,731
26-Sep 4,770 329,592 346,605 348,483 350,325 352,120 354,379 357,347 360,053 363,402 366,349 370,546 374,769 380,011 385,684 392,600 399,741 408,288 418,453 428,039 438,131 451,828 466,209
25-Sep 3,764 324,823 343,440 345,255 347,024 349,250 352,175 354,842 358,143 361,047 365,183 369,346 374,512 380,102 386,918 393,956 402,379 412,397 421,844 431,790 445,289 459,462 476,286
24-Sep 3,565 321,058 341,254 343,002 345,203 348,094 350,730 353,992 356,864 360,952 365,065 370,172 375,698 382,435 389,391 397,716 407,618 416,956 426,786 440,129 454,138 470,767 490,182
23-Sep 4,647 317,493 339,194 341,370 344,229 346,835 350,062 352,901 356,943 361,012 366,061 371,526 378,188 385,067 393,299 403,092 412,326 422,047 435,241 449,095 465,539 484,739 506,665
22-Sep 7,129 312,846 336,373 339,190 341,759 344,938 347,735 351,719 355,728 360,703 366,088 372,653 379,431 387,543 397,192 406,291 415,870 428,871 442,522 458,725 477,644 499,249 526,389
21-Sep 4,106 305,717 331,461 333,971 337,078 339,812 343,704 347,622 352,484 357,746 364,161 370,785 378,712 388,141 397,033 406,393 419,098 432,438 448,272 466,760 487,873 514,394 547,015
20-Sep 4,239 301,611 329,485 332,550 335,247 339,088 342,953 347,749 352,941 359,270 365,804 373,625 382,928 391,700 400,935 413,469 426,630 442,252 460,491 481,320 507,485 539,668 580,406
19-Sep 4,920 297,372 327,876 330,535 334,322 338,132 342,862 347,980 354,220 360,663 368,374 377,546 386,194 395,299 407,658 420,633 436,035 454,018 474,555 500,352 532,082 572,248 611,422
18-Sep 5,219 292,452 325,066 328,790 332,538 337,189 342,222 348,359 354,696 362,279 371,299 379,805 388,759 400,913 413,674 428,821 446,507 466,703 492,073 523,279 562,780 601,306 647,917
17-Sep 5,957 287,233 322,923 326,604 331,172 336,116 342,143 348,366 355,814 364,673 373,027 381,822 393,759 406,292 421,169 438,539 458,375 483,292 513,941 552,737 590,576 636,355 697,548
16-Sep 6,870 281,276 319,830 324,303 329,145 335,047 341,141 348,435 357,110 365,291 373,903 385,592 397,866 412,434 429,444 448,868 473,269 503,282 541,274 578,328 623,157 683,081 739,480
15-Sep 8,863 274,406 316,382 321,105 326,864 332,809 339,924 348,388 356,369 364,770 376,174 388,148 402,360 418,955 437,905 461,710 490,990 528,053 564,202 607,937 666,397 721,418 782,096
14-Sep 9,245 265,543 310,734 316,306 322,060 328,945 337,135 344,859 352,989 364,024 375,611 389,365 405,423 423,761 446,797 475,132 510,998 545,980 588,301 644,874 698,118 756,835 827,025
13-Sep 7,461 256,298 305,294 310,847 317,493 325,398 332,852 340,700 351,351 362,534 375,809 391,308 409,008 431,242 458,590 493,208 526,972 567,820 622,423 673,813 730,486 798,232 877,113
12-Sep 10,570 248,837 301,798 308,251 315,925 323,163 330,782 341,123 351,981 364,869 379,917 397,101 418,688 445,240 478,850 511,631 551,290 604,303 654,197 709,221 774,995 851,579 936,709
11-Sep 13,502 238,267 295,157 302,506 309,436 316,731 326,633 337,030 349,371 363,779 380,234 400,904 426,328 458,510 489,899 527,873 578,635 626,410 679,096 742,076 815,407 896,921 985,816
10-Sep 8,475 224,765 285,364 291,901 298,783 308,124 317,931 329,573 343,165 358,687 378,186 402,169 432,528 462,137 497,960 545,845 590,913 640,614 700,024 769,201 846,095 929,953 1,058,155
09-Sep 10,375 216,290 280,894 287,517 296,505 305,943 317,146 330,225 345,162 363,925 387,004 416,219 444,712 479,184 525,263 568,631 616,458 673,629 740,196 814,192 894,887 1,018,255 1,166,635
08-Sep 12,252 205,915 273,725 282,283 291,267 301,933 314,385 328,605 346,469 368,440 396,253 423,380 456,198 500,067 541,355 586,887 641,316 704,690 775,136 851,961 969,411 1,110,673 1,250,216
07-Sep 13,122 193,663 265,487 273,937 283,968 295,680 309,054 325,854 346,519 372,677 398,189 429,055 470,314 509,145 551,968 603,158 662,762 729,017 801,270 911,732 1,044,589 1,175,829 1,322,552
06-Sep 13,241 180,542 255,376 264,727 275,645 288,113 303,775 323,040 347,425 371,209 399,984 438,447 474,647 514,569 562,291 617,856 679,621 746,979 849,957 973,812 1,096,160 1,232,941 1,406,602
05-Sep 12,141 167,301 245,312 255,430 266,983 281,497 299,348 321,945 343,985 370,649 406,291 439,837 476,831 521,052 572,542 629,778 692,196 787,621 902,393 1,015,767 1,142,517 1,303,442 1,536,004
04-Sep 9,786 155,159 236,893 247,608 261,068 277,624 298,581 319,021 343,751 376,806 407,917 442,227 483,239 530,992 584,074 641,962 730,463 836,905 942,052 1,059,603 1,208,850 1,424,534 1,689,764
03-Sep 10,461 145,374 231,991 244,603 260,114 279,750 298,901 322,070 353,041 382,190 414,335 452,761 497,503 547,237 601,474 684,392 784,122 882,637 992,774 1,132,608 1,334,689 1,583,191 1,886,362
02-Sep 10,211 134,912 227,001 241,396 259,619 277,391 298,894 327,636 354,687 384,519 420,180 461,702 507,857 558,191 635,143 727,695 819,121 921,333 1,051,104 1,238,643 1,469,262 1,750,617 1,988,881
01-Sep 11,182 124,701 223,126 239,969 256,396 276,271 302,838 327,842 355,416 388,377 426,757 469,418 515,943 587,070 672,618 757,124 851,599 971,548 1,144,893 1,358,057 1,618,117 1,838,347 2,040,768
31-Aug 8,679 113,519 218,451 233,405 251,498 275,683 298,444 323,546 353,552 388,490 427,326 469,679 534,428 612,304 689,233 775,237 884,430 1,042,231 1,236,281 1,473,022 1,673,504 1,857,774 2,129,481
30-Aug 7,961 104,840 215,560 232,269 254,605 275,626 298,809 326,520 358,787 394,654 433,769 493,567 565,490 636,536 715,965 816,810 962,546 1,141,759 1,360,399 1,545,553 1,715,735 1,966,667 2,205,630
29-Aug 12,649 96,879 214,631 235,271 254,696 276,118 301,725 331,541 364,685 400,829 456,087 522,548 588,199 661,596 754,783 889,452 1,055,056 1,257,093 1,428,187 1,585,445 1,817,323 2,038,139 2,268,846
28-Aug 14,457 84,229 204,552 221,440 240,065 262,329 288,252 317,068 348,493 396,536 454,319 511,399 575,212 656,232 773,317 917,299 1,092,956 1,241,710 1,378,436 1,580,037 1,772,021 1,972,606 2,257,447
27-Aug 8,714 69,772 183,432 198,860 217,303 238,776 262,646 288,677 328,474 376,339 423,621 476,482 543,595 640,584 759,852 905,359 1,028,581 1,141,839 1,308,837 1,467,869 1,634,025 1,869,975 2,133,403
26-Aug 3,690 61,058 174,025 190,165 208,957 229,845 252,626 287,452 329,340 370,717 416,976 475,708 560,584 664,957 792,293 900,126 999,239 1,145,382 1,284,553 1,429,958 1,636,442 1,866,971 2,154,871
25-Aug 5,390 57,368 178,672 196,328 215,955 237,358 270,080 309,436 348,313 391,776 446,958 526,705 624,770 744,410 845,727 938,850 1,076,160 1,206,921 1,343,538 1,537,543 1,754,141 2,024,641 2,261,124
24-Aug 2,300 51,979 177,883 195,665 215,058 244,705 280,364 315,588 354,968 404,965 477,220 566,072 674,471 766,269 850,643 975,053 1,093,528 1,217,310 1,393,087 1,589,335 1,834,421 2,048,686 2,332,657
23-Aug 4,250 49,678 187,006 205,540 233,876 267,956 301,622 339,259 387,044 456,100 541,020 644,623 732,357 812,998 931,902 1,045,134 1,163,438 1,331,436 1,518,999 1,753,239 1,958,021 2,229,425 2,568,123
22-Aug 5,556 45,428 187,957 213,868 245,033 275,819 310,236 353,933 417,082 494,737 589,477 669,706 743,448 852,180 955,725 1,063,908 1,217,535 1,389,052 1,603,254 1,790,517 2,038,703 2,348,427 2,686,378
21-Aug 5,809 39,873 187,714 215,068 242,088 272,297 310,650 366,076 434,235 517,389 587,807 652,530 747,965 838,848 933,801 1,068,641 1,219,183 1,407,189 1,571,552 1,789,387 2,061,234 2,357,856 2,732,412
20-Aug 5,928 34,063 183,732 206,816 232,623 265,388 312,739 370,967 442,005 502,163 557,456 638,986 716,627 797,746 912,939 1,041,547 1,202,161 1,342,576 1,528,672 1,760,911 2,014,315 2,334,298 2,695,892
19-Aug 5,358 28,135 170,822 192,138 219,201 258,311 306,405 365,080 414,768 460,438 527,779 591,908 658,909 754,054 860,280 992,940 1,108,918 1,262,627 1,454,447 1,663,750 1,928,044 2,226,707 2,550,310
18-Aug 4,961 22,777 155,545 177,454 209,116 248,050 295,550 335,776 372,748 427,264 479,179 533,420 610,445 696,440 803,835 897,725 1,022,160 1,177,448 1,346,889 1,560,849 1,802,631 2,064,604 2,321,633
17-Aug 2,961 17,816 138,806 163,572 194,027 231,182 262,647 291,567 334,210 374,818 417,246 477,496 544,762 628,768 702,209 799,543 921,011 1,053,550 1,220,911 1,410,036 1,614,953 1,816,004 2,062,391
16-Aug 2,479 14,855 136,387 161,781 192,761 218,996 243,110 278,666 312,525 347,902 398,138 454,225 524,270 585,506 666,663 767,944 878,455 1,018,002 1,175,695 1,346,556 1,514,193 1,719,632 2,040,485
15-Aug 1,575 12,376 134,779 160,588 182,445 202,534 232,155 260,363 289,835 331,687 378,413 436,766 487,782 555,394 639,770 731,836 848,092 979,465 1,121,809 1,261,466 1,432,616 1,699,917 2,086,186
14-Aug 1,138 10,800 140,145 159,219 176,751 202,601 227,219 252,939 289,462 330,240 381,165 425,686 484,691 558,326 638,672 740,128 854,777 979,000 1,100,879 1,250,241 1,483,514 1,820,610 2,138,111
13-Aug 903 9,662 142,443 158,127 181,254 203,277 226,287 258,963 295,444 341,003 380,833 433,620 499,497 571,377 662,143 764,712 875,846 984,883 1,118,507 1,327,201 1,628,778 1,912,825 2,319,176
12-Aug 850 8,760 143,357 164,323 184,290 205,151 234,774 267,847 309,151 345,261 393,118 452,841 518,007 600,295 693,283 794,036 892,889 1,014,031 1,203,232 1,476,640 1,734,155 2,102,550 2,189,956
11-Aug 888 7,909 148,370 166,398 185,233 211,981 241,843 279,137 311,740 354,951 408,876 467,715 542,014 625,975 716,946 806,201 915,583 1,086,414 1,333,278 1,565,792 1,898,421 1,977,341 1,977,341
10-Aug 1,015 7,022 147,722 164,444 188,189 214,700 247,808 276,752 315,113 362,986 415,221 481,181 555,718 636,480 715,717 812,822 964,481 1,183,638 1,390,055 1,685,352 1,755,414 1,755,414 NA
09-Aug 685 6,006 140,662 160,974 183,651 211,971 236,729 269,543 310,492 355,174 411,595 475,352 544,435 612,213 695,275 825,001 1,012,465 1,189,031 1,441,623 1,501,553 1,501,553 NA NA
08-Aug 870 5,322 142,626 162,719 187,811 209,748 238,821 275,103 314,692 364,682 421,173 482,381 542,435 616,030 730,970 897,067 1,053,508 1,277,311 1,330,410 1,330,410 NA NA NA
07-Aug 909 4,452 136,130 157,122 175,474 199,797 230,151 263,271 305,092 352,353 403,559 453,800 515,369 611,528 750,484 881,363 1,068,595 1,113,018 1,113,018 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 587 3,543 125,050 139,657 159,015 183,172 209,532 242,817 280,430 321,185 361,170 410,172 486,703 597,295 701,459 850,473 885,829 885,829 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 542 2,956 116,518 132,669 152,824 174,817 202,587 233,969 267,971 301,331 342,215 406,066 498,335 585,241 709,567 739,065 739,065 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 543 2,414 108,348 124,808 142,769 165,448 191,077 218,845 246,090 279,479 331,624 406,979 477,953 579,487 603,577 603,577 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 737 1,871 96,732 110,652 128,230 148,093 169,615 190,731 216,609 257,024 315,427 370,435 449,129 467,800 467,800 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 695 1,134 67,083 77,739 89,781 102,829 115,631 131,319 155,821 191,228 224,576 272,284 283,603 283,603 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 439 439 30,100 34,763 39,815 44,772 50,846 60,333 74,042 86,955 105,427 109,810 109,810 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
24-Oct 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
23-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
22-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97
21-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97
20-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97
19-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96
18-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96
17-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
16-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95
15-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95
14-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94
13-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94
12-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93
11-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92
10-Oct 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92
09-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91
08-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90
07-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
06-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
05-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
04-Oct 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85
03-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84
02-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82
01-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81
30-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79
29-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77
28-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75
27-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73
26-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71
25-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68
24-Sep 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65
23-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63
22-Sep 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59
21-Sep 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56
20-Sep 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52
19-Sep 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49
18-Sep 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45
17-Sep 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41
16-Sep 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38
15-Sep 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35
14-Sep 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32
13-Sep 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29
12-Sep 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27
11-Sep 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24
10-Sep 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21
09-Sep 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19
08-Sep 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16
07-Sep 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15
06-Sep 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13
05-Sep 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11
04-Sep 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09
03-Sep 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08
02-Sep 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07
01-Sep 0.56 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
31-Aug 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
30-Aug 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05
29-Aug 0.45 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04
28-Aug 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
27-Aug 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
26-Aug 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
25-Aug 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
24-Aug 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02
23-Aug 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
22-Aug 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
21-Aug 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
20-Aug 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
19-Aug 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
18-Aug 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
17-Aug 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
16-Aug 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
15-Aug 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
14-Aug 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
13-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
12-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Oct 85 365,251 366,350 366,350 366,360 366,460 366,617 367,043 367,184 367,250 367,331 367,403 367,452 367,513 367,710 367,818 367,975 368,152 368,367 368,586 368,776 369,063 369,505
29-Oct 387 365,166 366,265 366,274 366,374 366,531 366,957 367,098 367,164 367,245 367,317 367,366 367,427 367,624 367,733 367,889 368,067 368,281 368,500 368,690 368,977 369,419 369,737
28-Oct 518 364,779 365,886 365,986 366,143 366,568 366,709 366,775 366,857 366,928 366,977 367,038 367,235 367,343 367,500 367,677 367,892 368,109 368,300 368,586 369,027 369,345 369,793
27-Oct 221 364,261 365,467 365,623 366,048 366,189 366,255 366,336 366,408 366,456 366,517 366,714 366,822 366,978 367,155 367,369 367,587 367,777 368,063 368,504 368,821 369,268 369,846
26-Oct 238 364,041 365,402 365,826 365,967 366,033 366,114 366,186 366,234 366,295 366,491 366,600 366,756 366,933 367,147 367,364 367,554 367,840 368,280 368,597 369,044 369,622 370,088
25-Oct 352 363,803 365,587 365,727 365,793 365,874 365,946 365,995 366,056 366,252 366,360 366,516 366,693 366,907 367,124 367,314 367,600 368,039 368,356 368,803 369,381 369,846 370,409
24-Oct 109 363,450 365,373 365,439 365,520 365,592 365,640 365,701 365,897 366,005 366,161 366,337 366,551 366,768 366,958 367,243 367,683 367,999 368,445 369,023 369,487 370,050 370,912
23-Oct 126 363,342 365,330 365,411 365,482 365,531 365,592 365,788 365,895 366,052 366,228 366,442 366,659 366,848 367,134 367,573 367,889 368,335 368,913 369,377 369,939 370,801 371,653
22-Oct 307 363,216 365,284 365,356 365,405 365,466 365,661 365,769 365,925 366,101 366,315 366,532 366,721 367,007 367,446 367,762 368,208 368,785 369,249 369,812 370,673 371,524 372,195
21-Oct 557 362,909 365,047 365,095 365,156 365,352 365,460 365,615 365,792 366,005 366,222 366,411 366,696 367,135 367,451 367,897 368,473 368,937 369,499 370,360 371,210 371,880 372,480
20-Oct 341 362,351 364,535 364,596 364,791 364,898 365,054 365,230 365,443 365,659 365,848 366,133 366,571 366,887 367,331 367,907 368,370 368,931 369,791 370,640 371,309 371,908 373,141
19-Oct 451 362,011 364,253 364,448 364,555 364,711 364,886 365,099 365,316 365,504 365,789 366,227 366,542 366,986 367,561 368,024 368,584 369,443 370,291 370,960 371,559 372,790 374,220
18-Oct 333 361,559 363,993 364,101 364,256 364,431 364,644 364,860 365,049 365,333 365,770 366,085 366,528 367,103 367,565 368,125 368,983 369,830 370,497 371,095 372,325 373,753 375,722
17-Oct 615 361,227 363,766 363,921 364,096 364,309 364,524 364,713 364,997 365,433 365,748 366,191 366,765 367,227 367,786 368,643 369,489 370,156 370,754 371,982 373,410 375,376 376,920
16-Oct 741 360,611 363,301 363,476 363,688 363,904 364,092 364,375 364,811 365,125 365,568 366,141 366,602 367,160 368,015 368,860 369,526 370,122 371,349 372,774 374,737 376,279 377,915
15-Oct 648 359,870 362,729 362,940 363,155 363,343 363,626 364,061 364,374 364,816 365,388 365,848 366,405 367,259 368,102 368,766 369,361 370,585 372,007 373,966 375,505 377,138 379,293
14-Oct 342 359,222 362,287 362,502 362,689 362,971 363,406 363,718 364,159 364,730 365,189 365,745 366,597 367,439 368,102 368,697 369,918 371,338 373,293 374,829 376,460 378,611 380,576
13-Oct 508 358,881 362,157 362,344 362,626 363,060 363,373 363,813 364,383 364,842 365,397 366,249 367,090 367,752 368,346 369,566 370,984 372,938 374,473 376,101 378,250 380,214 382,203
12-Oct 550 358,373 361,831 362,113 362,546 362,858 363,298 363,867 364,326 364,880 365,730 366,570 367,232 367,825 369,043 370,459 372,410 373,943 375,569 377,715 379,676 381,662 383,776
11-Oct 730 357,822 361,557 361,990 362,301 362,740 363,309 363,766 364,320 365,169 366,007 366,668 367,260 368,477 369,890 371,838 373,368 374,992 377,135 379,093 381,076 383,186 385,831
10-Oct 846 357,093 361,251 361,562 362,000 362,568 363,024 363,577 364,424 365,261 365,920 366,511 367,725 369,136 371,080 372,607 374,228 376,366 378,320 380,299 382,405 385,044 387,027
09-Oct 1,038 356,247 360,706 361,143 361,709 362,164 362,716 363,561 364,396 365,053 365,643 366,854 368,262 370,201 371,724 373,341 375,474 377,424 379,398 381,499 384,132 386,111 389,449
08-Oct 1,148 355,209 360,090 360,655 361,109 361,659 362,501 363,334 363,990 364,577 365,785 367,189 369,122 370,641 372,253 374,380 376,324 378,292 380,387 383,013 384,986 388,314 391,290
07-Oct 1,080 354,061 359,489 359,942 360,490 361,330 362,159 362,813 363,399 364,603 366,002 367,929 369,443 371,050 373,170 375,108 377,070 379,158 381,775 383,741 387,059 390,025 394,602
06-Oct 1,503 352,980 358,844 359,390 360,227 361,055 361,706 362,290 363,490 364,885 366,807 368,316 369,918 372,032 373,963 375,919 378,001 380,610 382,571 385,878 388,836 393,398 397,549
05-Oct 2,069 351,477 357,859 358,693 359,517 360,166 360,747 361,942 363,331 365,245 366,747 368,343 370,447 372,371 374,318 376,391 378,989 380,941 384,235 387,180 391,723 395,856 401,941
04-Oct 1,555 349,409 356,582 357,401 358,046 358,624 359,812 361,193 363,095 364,589 366,175 368,267 370,179 372,115 374,176 376,759 378,699 381,973 384,901 389,417 393,526 399,576 404,659
03-Oct 1,679 347,854 355,811 356,453 357,028 358,211 359,586 361,480 362,967 364,546 366,629 368,532 370,460 372,511 375,082 377,014 380,274 383,188 387,685 391,775 397,798 402,858 408,752
02-Oct 1,462 346,175 354,733 355,305 356,483 357,850 359,735 361,215 362,786 364,859 366,753 368,672 370,714 373,272 375,195 378,439 381,339 385,814 389,885 395,878 400,914 406,779 414,300
01-Oct 1,437 344,713 353,805 354,977 356,339 358,216 359,690 361,254 363,319 365,205 367,115 369,148 371,696 373,611 376,841 379,729 384,185 388,238 394,206 399,221 405,061 412,551 420,433
30-Sep 3,797 343,276 353,497 354,854 356,723 358,190 359,748 361,804 363,682 365,585 367,609 370,146 372,053 375,270 378,146 382,583 386,620 392,563 397,557 403,373 410,831 418,681 425,882
29-Sep 3,979 339,479 350,929 352,777 354,228 355,769 357,802 359,660 361,541 363,543 366,052 367,938 371,119 373,963 378,351 382,343 388,221 393,160 398,911 406,287 414,050 421,171 429,002
28-Sep 3,790 335,500 348,642 350,076 351,599 353,608 355,444 357,303 359,282 361,762 363,625 366,769 369,580 373,916 377,862 383,670 388,551 394,235 401,525 409,196 416,235 423,974 432,619
27-Sep 2,118 331,710 346,121 347,627 349,613 351,428 353,267 355,223 357,675 359,517 362,625 365,405 369,692 373,593 379,336 384,162 389,781 396,989 404,574 411,532 419,184 427,732 440,445
26-Sep 4,770 329,592 345,408 347,382 349,185 351,011 352,955 355,391 357,222 360,310 363,072 367,332 371,208 376,914 381,709 387,293 394,454 401,991 408,905 416,508 425,001 437,634 450,310
25-Sep 3,764 324,823 342,354 344,132 345,932 347,847 350,248 352,052 355,096 357,818 362,016 365,836 371,460 376,185 381,688 388,746 396,173 402,988 410,480 418,850 431,300 443,794 459,134
24-Sep 3,565 321,058 340,144 341,923 343,816 346,189 347,973 350,981 353,671 357,821 361,597 367,155 371,826 377,265 384,241 391,582 398,318 405,724 413,997 426,302 438,651 453,813 469,201
23-Sep 4,647 317,493 338,126 339,998 342,345 344,108 347,083 349,744 353,848 357,581 363,078 367,697 373,076 379,974 387,234 393,894 401,218 409,399 421,568 433,780 448,774 463,990 483,079
22-Sep 7,129 312,846 335,022 337,334 339,072 342,003 344,625 348,668 352,348 357,764 362,315 367,615 374,413 381,566 388,129 395,346 403,407 415,398 427,431 442,205 457,199 476,009 501,403
21-Sep 4,106 305,717 329,648 331,345 334,210 336,772 340,723 344,319 349,611 354,059 359,238 365,881 372,872 379,285 386,337 394,215 405,932 417,691 432,129 446,781 465,162 489,978 518,116
20-Sep 4,239 301,611 326,895 329,721 332,248 336,147 339,694 344,916 349,304 354,413 360,967 367,863 374,191 381,148 388,920 400,480 412,081 426,325 440,780 458,914 483,397 511,157 539,627
19-Sep 4,920 297,372 325,087 327,578 331,422 334,919 340,068 344,394 349,432 355,893 362,693 368,931 375,791 383,453 394,851 406,289 420,332 434,585 452,464 476,602 503,972 532,042 560,467
18-Sep 5,219 292,452 322,159 325,939 329,378 334,441 338,696 343,650 350,004 356,692 362,827 369,573 377,109 388,318 399,566 413,378 427,394 444,978 468,717 495,634 523,240 551,194 592,137
17-Sep 5,957 287,233 320,122 323,500 328,473 332,652 337,518 343,759 350,327 356,352 362,978 370,380 381,389 392,436 406,001 419,768 437,037 460,353 486,789 513,903 541,358 581,571 637,520
16-Sep 6,870 281,276 316,791 321,661 325,753 330,518 336,629 343,061 348,962 355,450 362,698 373,479 384,297 397,581 411,062 427,973 450,805 476,694 503,245 530,131 569,509 624,299 665,369
15-Sep 8,863 274,406 313,804 317,796 322,445 328,407 334,682 340,439 346,768 353,839 364,357 374,911 387,870 401,022 417,520 439,794 465,050 490,953 517,182 555,599 609,050 649,118 690,974
14-Sep 9,245 265,543 307,532 312,031 317,800 323,872 329,443 335,568 342,411 352,589 362,802 375,343 388,069 404,035 425,590 450,030 475,096 500,478 537,654 589,379 628,152 668,657 732,782
13-Sep 7,461 256,298 301,168 306,736 312,597 317,974 323,886 330,490 340,313 350,171 362,275 374,559 389,969 410,773 434,362 458,556 483,055 518,936 568,860 606,283 645,378 707,271 777,512
12-Sep 10,570 248,837 297,807 303,497 308,717 314,457 320,869 330,406 339,977 351,729 363,655 378,616 398,815 421,718 445,207 468,992 503,829 552,300 588,634 626,590 686,681 754,877 815,317
11-Sep 13,502 238,267 290,605 295,604 301,100 307,240 316,372 325,536 336,789 348,208 362,534 381,875 403,805 426,296 449,071 482,428 528,840 563,631 599,975 657,513 722,813 780,685 860,981
10-Sep 8,475 224,765 278,853 284,038 289,829 298,444 307,089 317,704 328,476 341,990 360,235 380,922 402,139 423,624 455,091 498,872 531,691 565,976 620,254 681,853 736,446 812,192 934,218
09-Sep 10,375 216,290 273,327 278,901 287,191 295,510 305,724 316,090 329,095 346,651 366,559 386,975 407,650 437,930 480,061 511,643 544,635 596,866 656,143 708,677 781,566 898,991 1,037,981
08-Sep 12,252 205,915 265,522 273,415 281,335 291,059 300,928 313,309 330,023 348,976 368,413 388,096 416,924 457,034 487,100 518,509 568,235 624,669 674,683 744,076 855,868 988,191 1,126,739
07-Sep 13,122 193,663 257,147 264,596 273,741 283,023 294,667 310,387 328,212 346,493 365,004 392,117 429,841 458,118 487,659 534,426 587,502 634,540 699,804 804,945 929,395 1,059,699 1,204,455
06-Sep 13,241 180,542 246,668 255,194 263,847 274,702 289,357 305,974 323,016 340,273 365,549 400,716 427,078 454,617 498,215 547,695 591,546 652,388 750,405 866,423 987,898 1,122,845 1,261,007
05-Sep 12,141 167,301 236,478 244,496 254,555 268,135 283,533 299,326 315,318 338,740 371,328 395,756 421,275 461,676 507,527 548,162 604,542 695,370 802,879 915,445 1,040,496 1,168,524 1,382,652
04-Sep 9,786 155,159 226,753 236,082 248,676 262,957 277,603 292,435 314,157 344,380 367,036 390,703 428,172 470,695 508,381 560,670 644,907 744,614 849,011 964,986 1,083,723 1,282,312 1,544,706
03-Sep 10,461 145,374 221,192 232,992 246,372 260,095 273,991 294,343 322,660 343,887 366,061 401,167 441,008 476,318 525,308 604,232 697,651 795,464 904,125 1,015,373 1,201,437 1,447,282 1,751,523
02-Sep 10,211 134,912 216,226 228,643 241,378 254,274 273,162 299,441 319,140 339,719 372,299 409,273 442,041 487,506 560,751 647,447 738,221 839,062 942,305 1,114,979 1,343,133 1,625,481 1,863,651
01-Sep 11,182 124,701 211,338 223,109 235,029 252,487 276,777 294,985 314,006 344,120 378,296 408,584 450,608 518,309 598,443 682,347 775,556 870,984 1,030,589 1,241,475 1,502,452 1,722,596 1,968,511
31-Aug 8,679 113,519 203,103 213,954 229,846 251,959 268,534 285,850 313,263 344,374 371,947 410,203 471,833 544,781 621,161 706,012 792,884 938,177 1,130,153 1,367,728 1,568,132 1,791,996 2,138,462
30-Aug 7,961 104,840 197,596 212,273 232,695 248,003 263,995 289,312 318,045 343,509 378,840 435,758 503,129 573,669 652,033 732,263 866,447 1,043,745 1,263,156 1,448,238 1,654,985 1,974,962 2,218,180
29-Aug 12,649 96,879 196,154 215,024 229,170 243,947 267,342 293,893 317,424 350,071 402,667 464,922 530,106 602,519 676,656 800,651 964,485 1,167,235 1,338,261 1,529,309 1,824,988 2,049,736 2,250,472
28-Aug 14,457 84,229 186,949 199,248 212,095 232,436 255,520 275,978 304,363 350,091 404,218 460,891 523,849 588,306 696,111 838,553 1,014,830 1,163,526 1,329,629 1,586,701 1,782,104 1,956,630 2,165,598
27-Aug 8,714 69,772 165,048 175,691 192,540 211,662 228,609 252,122 290,001 334,837 381,783 433,934 487,328 576,629 694,623 840,643 963,817 1,101,409 1,314,357 1,476,221 1,620,791 1,793,892 1,948,384
26-Aug 3,690 61,058 153,750 168,495 185,228 200,059 220,635 253,784 293,021 334,103 379,742 426,468 504,616 607,874 735,659 843,450 963,859 1,150,212 1,291,862 1,418,377 1,569,860 1,705,059 1,996,667
25-Aug 5,390 57,368 158,312 174,034 187,968 207,301 238,447 275,312 313,912 356,792 400,694 474,120 571,137 691,199 792,476 905,608 1,080,699 1,213,788 1,332,657 1,474,985 1,602,013 1,875,998 2,098,998
24-Aug 2,300 51,979 157,683 170,308 187,825 216,044 249,446 284,419 323,271 363,048 429,575 517,477 626,259 718,021 820,524 979,165 1,099,750 1,207,451 1,336,407 1,451,500 1,699,744 1,901,792 2,206,485
23-Aug 4,250 49,678 162,771 179,513 206,483 238,407 271,832 308,965 346,981 410,564 494,576 598,544 686,245 784,212 935,832 1,051,080 1,154,015 1,277,264 1,387,264 1,624,521 1,817,628 2,108,837 2,451,468
22-Aug 5,556 45,428 164,156 188,819 218,012 248,577 282,533 317,298 375,442 452,267 547,340 627,538 717,124 855,774 961,163 1,055,292 1,167,997 1,268,587 1,485,548 1,662,135 1,928,431 2,241,751 2,551,739
21-Aug 5,809 39,873 165,728 191,351 218,179 247,982 278,495 329,528 396,958 480,405 550,795 629,426 751,120 843,621 926,239 1,025,161 1,113,450 1,303,878 1,458,870 1,692,600 1,967,604 2,239,683 2,564,249
20-Aug 5,928 34,063 163,471 186,390 211,851 237,918 281,516 339,121 410,410 470,544 537,718 641,681 720,705 791,285 875,795 951,219 1,113,902 1,246,312 1,445,987 1,680,923 1,913,360 2,190,636 2,530,415
19-Aug 5,358 28,135 153,951 174,981 196,512 232,522 280,102 338,983 388,652 444,135 530,005 595,275 653,572 723,374 785,672 920,042 1,029,407 1,194,332 1,388,380 1,580,364 1,809,385 2,090,029 2,406,295
18-Aug 4,961 22,777 141,656 159,086 188,238 226,756 274,424 314,633 359,550 429,066 481,905 529,100 585,608 636,041 744,820 833,357 966,872 1,123,963 1,279,384 1,464,788 1,691,984 1,948,017 2,182,974
17-Aug 2,961 17,816 124,439 147,242 177,371 214,657 246,109 281,243 335,619 376,951 413,867 458,068 497,517 582,605 651,860 756,297 879,175 1,000,747 1,145,771 1,323,486 1,523,758 1,707,543 1,928,538
16-Aug 2,479 14,855 122,771 147,893 178,982 205,207 234,502 279,841 314,304 345,084 381,939 414,833 485,779 543,524 630,604 733,061 834,428 955,350 1,103,529 1,270,517 1,423,758 1,608,024 1,922,021
15-Aug 1,575 12,376 123,209 149,109 170,957 195,363 233,134 261,845 287,488 318,192 345,595 404,700 452,807 525,353 610,709 695,157 795,897 919,345 1,058,461 1,186,125 1,339,637 1,601,226 1,967,707
14-Aug 1,138 10,800 130,127 149,194 170,492 203,456 228,511 250,890 277,685 301,600 353,181 395,164 458,474 532,964 606,662 694,578 802,310 923,717 1,035,129 1,169,098 1,397,386 1,717,214 2,025,052
13-Aug 903 9,662 133,474 152,528 182,018 204,434 224,455 248,426 269,821 315,967 353,527 410,166 476,808 542,740 621,392 717,773 826,388 926,061 1,045,914 1,250,148 1,536,276 1,811,679 2,280,334
12-Aug 850 8,760 138,281 165,017 185,338 203,489 225,222 244,618 286,454 320,505 371,854 432,271 492,045 563,350 650,729 749,198 839,561 948,219 1,133,376 1,392,778 1,642,456 2,067,337 2,189,956
11-Aug 888 7,909 148,996 167,345 183,733 203,356 220,869 258,643 289,388 335,752 390,303 444,274 508,656 587,552 676,461 758,051 856,160 1,023,341 1,257,559 1,482,996 1,866,626 1,977,341 1,977,341
10-Aug 1,015 7,022 148,563 163,112 180,532 196,080 229,614 256,909 298,069 346,497 394,411 451,567 521,608 600,538 672,971 760,069 908,486 1,116,416 1,316,552 1,657,125 1,755,414 1,755,414 NA
09-Aug 685 6,006 139,523 154,424 167,724 196,408 219,756 254,963 296,388 337,373 386,263 446,175 513,691 575,649 650,150 777,104 954,965 1,126,157 1,417,478 1,501,553 1,501,553 NA NA
08-Aug 870 5,322 136,823 148,607 174,022 194,708 225,903 262,607 298,920 342,238 395,321 455,142 510,038 576,048 688,532 846,120 997,801 1,255,918 1,330,410 1,330,410 NA NA NA
07-Aug 909 4,452 124,324 145,587 162,893 188,990 219,696 250,076 286,316 330,725 380,771 426,697 481,921 576,025 707,863 834,758 1,050,699 1,113,018 1,113,018 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 587 3,543 115,870 129,643 150,414 174,852 199,030 227,873 263,217 303,048 339,599 383,551 458,446 563,373 664,367 836,230 885,829 885,829 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 542 2,956 108,164 125,493 145,882 166,055 190,119 219,607 252,839 283,334 320,004 382,491 470,034 554,295 697,683 739,065 739,065 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 543 2,414 102,487 119,139 135,613 155,266 179,348 206,487 231,392 261,340 312,371 383,865 452,680 569,781 603,577 603,577 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 737 1,871 92,338 105,106 120,338 139,003 160,037 179,340 202,550 242,102 297,513 350,847 441,607 467,800 467,800 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 695 1,134 63,721 72,955 84,271 97,022 108,725 122,796 146,774 180,367 212,701 267,724 283,603 283,603 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 439 439 28,248 32,629 37,567 42,098 47,546 56,830 69,837 82,357 103,661 109,810 109,810 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
25-Oct 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
24-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
23-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
22-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
21-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
20-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97
19-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97
18-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96
17-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96
16-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
15-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95
14-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94
13-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94
12-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93
11-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93
10-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92
09-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91
08-Oct 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91
07-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90
06-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89
05-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87
04-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86
03-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85
02-Oct 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84
01-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82
30-Sep 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81
29-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79
28-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78
27-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75
26-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73
25-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71
24-Sep 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68
23-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66
22-Sep 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62
21-Sep 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59
20-Sep 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56
19-Sep 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53
18-Sep 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49
17-Sep 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45
16-Sep 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42
15-Sep 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40
14-Sep 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36
13-Sep 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33
12-Sep 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31
11-Sep 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28
10-Sep 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24
09-Sep 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21
08-Sep 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18
07-Sep 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16
06-Sep 0.73 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14
05-Sep 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12
04-Sep 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
03-Sep 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08
02-Sep 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07
01-Sep 0.59 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06
31-Aug 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
30-Aug 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05
29-Aug 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04
28-Aug 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
27-Aug 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04
26-Aug 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03
25-Aug 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
24-Aug 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
23-Aug 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
22-Aug 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
21-Aug 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
20-Aug 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
19-Aug 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
18-Aug 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
17-Aug 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
16-Aug 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
15-Aug 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
14-Aug 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
13-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
12-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Data sources

Fish counts are accessed from the Fish Passage Center and river environment data from the US Army Corps of Engineers Northwest District

Fall season visual estimates of tule and bright passage are available from data.wa.gov

Additional resources

Columbia Basin Research produces spring and fall Chinook run size predictions available here.

This site shows spring Chinook run size predictions from ODFW based on a log-linear regression between end-of-season dam counts and 2 predictors: 1) the total jack dam counts from the previous year, and 2) the cumulative adult counts to date.

This site shows sockeye run size predictions from ODFW.

Data from test fishing is available here

A plethora of information including pre-season forecasts and fact sheet with catch updates is available here. Note that pre-season forecasts are generally of an index of abundance that includes the Bonneville Dam counts and harvest below Bonneville Dam, so a greater number than what is being predicted here.

Code used to generate predictions and render website is available here